Mike Greenberg makes bold claim about Cowboys' Mike McCarthy's job security

NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Mike Ehrmann/GettyImages

On ESPN's show "Get Up," host Mike Greenberg ranked Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy as the No. 1 coach he thinks is on the hot seat to begin the season.

McCarthy is entering his fourth year as the Cowboy's leading man and has a regular season record of 30-20. He also carries a 1-2 playoff record in Dallas.

What's befuddling is the other names on the list don't seem to match McCarthy's resume.

Mike Greenberg believes Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat. Is he right?

Of all the names on the list, McCarthy is the only coach who is ten games over the .500 mark. Washington coach Ron Rivera (22-27-1) and Jets head coach Robert Saleh (11-23) are both well under, while Chargers coach Brandon Staley (19-15) and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski (26-24) face pivotal seasons that will undoubtedly fuel their future narrative.

The list to me felt like a buckshot.

Then it hit me.

Why compare just the listed coaches?

I gathered the resumes of all 32 head coaches in the NFL and I must say I was surprised.

There are five coaches entering their first year with their respective teams that I automatically eliminated from contention. Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett after 15 games in his rookie season but I don't think we will see this dubious record broken this soon.

Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), Frank Reich (Carolina), Sean Payton (Denver), Demeco Ryans (Houston), and Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) were removed because we simply have no idea how things will play out.

Second-year coaches are a different story. Doug Pederson (Jags), Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota), and Todd Bowles (Tampa) all won their divisions and made the playoffs while Mike McDaniel (Miami) and Brian Daboll (Giants) snuck into the dance as a wildcard team.

I think Pederson, Daboll, and O'Connell are safe as the trajectory of those franchises appear to be headed in the right direction. With questions about their quarterback and an aging roster, Bowles is a name I would have considered over McCarthy.

Dennis Allen (Saints), Josh McDaniels (Raiders), and Matt Eberflus (Chicago) are the second-year guys who did not make it to the postseason in their inaugural year. The addition of Derek Carr in an open NFC South probably keeps Allen safe.

With that said, I believe McCarthy has more security and a better roster than Allen.

Ebeflus in Chicago is the wildcard to me. Does the former Cowboys coach and defensive guru have enough pieces around Justin Fields to succeed? I think a visible progression will earn him the benefit of the doubt.

Then there are the Raiders. I still have my doubts about McDaniels after his stint with the Broncos. Rocky relationships with their two best players are giving me déjà vu. McDaniels is in a tough division with three teams capable of having better seasons.

I believe McDaniels seat is much warmer than McCarthy's.

Now we get to the third-year guys who were hired one year after McCarthy. Arthur Smith (Atlanta), Dan Campbell (Detroit), and Robert Saleh (Jets) are the three coaches who have not been to the playoffs and own a losing record.

All three appear to have teams on the rise but three straight losing seasons is what they are facing if expectations are not met. Greeny already listed the fourth in this category which is the previously mentioned, Brandon Staley.

The fifth guy on this list has by far been the most productive. That would be Eagles coach Nick Sirianni. With a record of 23-11 and a Super Bow appearance, there is little doubt his immediate future is secure.

Now we get to McCarthy's class.

With Joe Judge (Giants) and Matt Rhule (Carolina) already fired, Greeny seems to want to eliminate McCarthy's class of 2020 which also includes the previously mentioned Kevin Stefanski and Ron Rivera.

You have to go back to 2016 to find a coaching class that is no longer around.

That number may not be as solid as you may think. No matter the direction of their teams, John Harbaugh (Ravens), Andy Reid (Chiefs), Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh), Pete Carroll (Seattle), and Bill Belichick (Patriots) are Super Bowl-winning coaches who deserve a proper goodbye whenever that time comes.

Sean McDermott (Buffalo), Zack Taylor (Cincinnati), and Mike Shanahan (San Francisco) are coaches who can cement themselves with the names above if they can bring their city a championship. This is where I would currently place McCarthy.

That leaves only three coaches.

Super Bowl-winning coach Sean McVay reportedly had to be convinced to return. "Hot Seat" is not the term that springs to mind with McVay. They went for it all and are paying for what they owe to the football gods.

The last two are Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) and Matt LaFleur (Green Bay).

This is interesting because the coaches I mentioned that were a step from Super Bowl immortality are also a step from entering purgatory. That is where I have these two but a Super Bowl immediately changes their fate.

I cannot envision Vrabel or LaFleur being fired during the year but I can see a scenario where their teams want to go in a different direction at the conclusion of the season.

LaFleur is no longer handcuffed to Aaron Rodgers which could add pressure to achieve greater heights. What if the success the Packers had was more due to Rodgers as a player than LaFleur's coaching?

Vrabel has transformed Tennessee into a formidable team but like McCarthy, he has failed to win in the playoffs. The Titans have had two playoff wins since hiring Vrabel in 2018.

McDermott would certainly fit the bill (no pun intended) as having a different voice to coach Josh Allen may certainly come up if the rest of the division closes the gap. Four playoff wins since 2017 isn't exactly better than McCarthy's situation.

I can see a scenario where coach McCarthy can be added to this category, but having him on the hot seat may be premature. McCarthy will ultimately be judged by his team's performance in the postseason.

If making a list, there are clearly more qualified (or unqualified depending on how you see it) coaches in the NFL whose seats are warmer than the guy in Dallas.

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