By no metric has George Pickens been bad during the first four games of the 2026 NFL season. But the Dallas Cowboys franchise tagged him at a steep price of $27.3 million to contribute a lot more than he has so far in a 2-2 start for Brian Schottenheimer's team.
Luckily, the Dallas offense has largely stayed afloat because the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb connection is unstoppable, and both Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson have been touchdown magnets when needed. That doesn't mean that the Cowboys don't need more from Pickens, though.
In four contests, he has mustered just 18 catches for 225 yards and zero scores, which is a 77-catch, 956-yard, zero-touchdown pace. That's not even close to the production that fans or the team have come to expect from him, and that wouldn't be worth the price tag this year, let alone in the long term.
But heading into Dallas' Week 5 matchup on Thursday Night Football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the perfect storm may be brewing for Pickens to fully resurface. Injuries to the Bucs' secondary, Lamb's recent big game, and Pickens' boom-or-bust primetime showings are all factors.
Week 5's game vs. Bucs has all the right ingredients for Cowboys' George Pickens to go off
After the year that Pickens had in 2025, and with Lamb coming off an injury, it stands to reason that a lot of teams have been shading coverage Pickens' way. There was talk all offseason about Pickens being the real No. 1 wideout in Dallas, and perhaps some opposing defenses truly felt that way.
Lamb catching 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown against arguably the NFL's best secondary last week, though, serves as a brutal reminder that this is a "pick your poison" offense. And after that showing, teams should be adjusting back to the mindset of stopping Lamb, first and foremost.
Enter Pickens.
Without the attention that being the top target garners, Pickens should be able to run free against a Tampa Bay secondary that is also banged up. Starting cornerback Benjamin Morrison missed Week 4 and did not practice on Tuesday. Tampa Bay could easily wait to get him back after a mini-bye.
Starting Bucs free safety Antoine Winfield II, one of the league's best deep defenders, is also out for Thursday's matchup. Zyon McColllum can only defend one of Lamb or Pickens, and without Winfield II over the top to help out Tampa Bay's second corner, it could get ugly in Dallas.
Now, Jacob Parrish, who will presumably be filling in for Morrison again if he can't play, did look good last week against the Green Bay Packers, picking off a pass and breaking up another. But he was guarding tight ends and Matthew Golden. No disrespect to them, but they aren't George Pickens.
And the week before, he gave up five completions for 107 yards, including a 41-yard touchdown to Jordan Addison. Last year, Parrish gave up 60 catches for 665 yards and three touchdowns, allowing a passer rating of 104.8 when targeted. That shouldn't exactly scare Pickens or Prescott.
If Todd Bowles' unit focuses its attention on Lamb, the ball should go Pickens' way more often. And he is set up for success in a matchup against Parrish, who, although he looked good last week against a weak set of Packers pass-catchers, doesn't exactly have the strongest résumé in coverage.
George Pickens' boom-or-bust primetime showings set the stage for Dallas' WR
The Cowboys played in primetime or standalone games seven times last year. A look at the averages would tell you that Pickens performs no differently in these spotlight games, with quite a sample size to go from as well:
2025 George Pickens | Primetime/Standalone | Non-Primetime/Standalone |
|---|---|---|
Receptions per Game | 5.7 | 5.3 |
Yards per Game | 77.9 | 81.4 |
Receiving TDs per game | 0.42 | 0.6 |
Pretty negligible difference.
But the key here is how Pickens got to those averages. Across the 10 games played in simple Sunday windows, there was less of a range of performances. But in primetime, Pickens had a lot of booms and a lot of busts.
Three out of his four lowest yardage outputs came in standalone games. Conversely, two of his four highest yardage outputs came in primetime. That means that in five of his seven showings, he had a really high or a really low output.
What this means is that Pickens can be hot or cold under the bright lights. But the way that Thursday's game against the Bucs is set up, with a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay secondary and fresh off a legacy showing from Lamb, we could feasibly see a boom.
And let's hope so, because Cowboys fans want so badly for last year not to be an exception, but the rule. Dallas wants to be right about Pickens and to give him a big contract because he is a difference-maker. He hasn't shown it yet in 2026, outside of a few plays, but that can start again in Week 5.
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