One of the reasons we all love the NFL Draft is that it’s so unpredictable. Players who seem like first-round locks going into a college football season can suddenly find themselves falling to Day 3. And players who aren’t even on the radar for most teams, like Malachi Lawrence, can wind up going in Round 1.
There are a variety of reasons why a player might see their stock rise or fall throughout the process, but it’s always amazing to look back at the early big boards to see how much has changed. And it’s clear the Cowboys were betting on talent this season rather than just one year's worth of production.
In a recent article by Dane Brugler of The Athletic, he took a look back at his preseason top 50 rankings for the 2026 NFL Draft. It was a fascinating look at his thought process going into the 2025 season, and the list was littered with Cowboys draft picks.
Caleb Downs was the No. 4-ranked player by Brugler going into the season, and by the end of the process, he wound up at No. 5. The Cowboys were able to steal him at No. 11, and the hope is that he can be a foundational piece for the defense.
The next draft pick by the Cowboys on the list was actually LT Overton, who Brugler ranked at No. 23 in August. Dallas ended up picking Overton on Day 3 of the draft with the hopes that he could develop into a rotational defensive lineman for Christian Parker.
“Though he is a long, balanced mover for a 275-pound athlete, Overton is a good example of a prospect with appealing individual traits that don’t add up to an impactful player. He was worth the gamble on Day 3 of the draft.”
The Dallas Cowboys are hoping LT Overton and Drew Shelton return to 2024 form
Overton was more productive in 2025, recording a career-high 4.0 sacks and six tackles for a loss. But he did not take the step many people were anticipating. A less-than-desirable combine performance certainly didn’t help, and that’s how a player with first-round talent falls to Day 3.
A few spots later on this list was Drew Shelton, the No. 26 player for Brugler in August. The Cowboys selected Shelton early in the fourth round, betting on the same traits that Brugler saw before the 2025 season. Here is what Brugler said about his pre-season ranking of Shelton:
“With his movement skills and upside, Shelton was poised to be a riser throughout the 2025 season. However, his lack of functional strength did not improve, and questions about his toughness lingered, causing him to stumble in the rankings.”
The draft is all about projecting, and Brugler was projecting that Shelton would grow stronger and really develop once he became a full-time starter. While he did show some signs of improvement as a player, they didn’t warrant a top 100 selection, let alone a pick in the first round.
The Cowboys don’t need Shelton or Overton to hit for this to be a great draft class. If Downs and Malachi Lawrence can live up to their potential, those two players alone can make this one of the better classes in recent memory. But if Shelton and/or Overton can live up to their August 2025 rankings, this has a chance to be a franchise-altering draft for Dallas.
Overton and Shelton are expected to open the 2026 season as players competing to be active on game days. Right now, that is not a given, considering their depth at offensive tackle and defensive tackle.
However, the Cowboys remain optimistic that both players will be more productive in the NFL and that their system will unlock their talent. That remains to be seen, but there is no doubt the Cowboys were swinging for the fences and gambling on upside late in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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