Well, the Dallas Cowboys have put themselves into a tough spot coming into Week 9. After blowing a massive lead to the Cardinals in Week 8, Dallas is now 3-5 after eight games and is in serious trouble. Luckily, thanks to their division, they aren’t completely out of the playoff picture, but it’s getting late early.
The Cowboys are favored on the road this week against another bad team in the Indianapolis Colts. But as we’ve learned this season, the Cowboys can certainly lose to anyone. And for the first time this season, they are facing a must-win scenario, or their season is essentially over. So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the updated playoff odds for the Dallas Cowboys:
Cowboys need a win to keep playoff hopes alive
The Cowboys currently have a 30 percent chance of making the 2026 playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. The site gives them roughly a 27 percent chance of winning the NFC East and just a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs via a Wild Card.
Dallas's only real path to the postseason is through the NFC East, as there will likely be two NFC North Wild Card teams, if not three. The Cowboys don’t have a tiebreaker with the Packers, a team that could be competing for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC. The good news is that Dallas still has games left against San Francisco, Seattle, and the Los Angeles Rams, so they could earn a few tiebreakers with wins in those contests, but that seems unlikely.
So let’s talk about their odds this week. With a win over the Colts, the Cowboys would see their playoff chances rise to roughly 36 percent. That is still a concerning number, but the Cowboys would be trending in the right direction.
If the Cowboys win and the Giants fall to Joe Milton and the Eagles in Week 9, Dallas would see their playoff chances move up all the way to 42 percent in just one week. And they could actually move up to 44 percent if the Rams take care of business against the Commanders on Sunday. That is what is possible for Dallas this weekend.
But what if the Cowboys win, as well as the Giants? Their chances of making the playoffs would remain at 30 percent, which is the same number they had going into the week. The loss to the Cardinals last week really did take a toll on their playoff chances, but it didn’t eliminate them.
However, the Cowboys losing to the Colts would essentially end their playoff hopes, assuming the Giants win. That scenario (DAL loss, NYG win) would then put the playoff chances for the Cowboys at just 15 percent after nine games. They wouldn’t be fully eliminated, but it’s hard to believe that a team that had just lost to the Cardinals and Colts would be able to go on any sort of run given the opponents left on their schedule.
It is worth noting that the scenario in which the Cowboys and Giants both lost this weekend wouldn’t affect either of their odds very much, as the simulator believes these are the only two teams in the NFC East that have a chance of winning the division.
The Cowboys won’t become the favorites to win the NFC East with a victory over the Colts on Sunday. But it would give them an opportunity to settle things down and extend their season. Sunday isn’t a playoff game, but it might as well be, as a loss would essentially end their season.
We are about to learn a ton about the Cowboys on Sunday and how they will respond to a terrible loss in Week 8.
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