The Dallas Cowboys managed to steady the ship with a win against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. How much that win will matter remains to be seen, but it was an important step for a franchise that had just lost back-to-back primetime games.
Dallas now sits at 3-4 after the first seven weeks of the season, and truthfully, they are probably only a game behind what most people expected at this point. And that’s why the loss to the Buccaneers against Jalon Daniels looms so large. Luckily, the NFC East continues to be up for grabs, meaning that the Cowboys are still in the thick of things going into November.
Cowboys see their playoff chances rise after Week 7 win vs. Eagles
Going into the Week 6 matchup against the Packers, the Cowboys had a 41 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. Since that game, the Cowboys have lost to the Packers and beaten the Eagles, while the Giants upset the Texans in Houston despite being 10.5-point underdogs.
And yet, the Cowboys' odds of making the postseason increased.
Heading into Week 8, the Cowboys have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic. The simulator gives Dallas a 40 percent chance of winning the division, while the Giants are slightly favored with a 48 percent chance of taking home the NFC East.
The Cowboys saw their odds improve because the Eagles and the Commanders both failed to win in Week 6 and Week 7. With the two teams combining for just three wins in the first two months of the season, neither is viewed as a realistic threat in the NFC East.
It is worth noting that the Cowboys do have a 4 percent chance of making the postseason as a Wild Card team, but that feels pretty unlikely given the strength of the NFC. But if teams like the Rams, Packers, and Seahawks keep losing games, it does open up an alternative path if the Cowboys were to get to nine or so wins this season.
The Cowboys must take care of business vs. the Cardinals
So how much would a win over the Cardinals change Dallas's playoff outlook? According to the simulator, the Cowboys would see their overall playoff odds rise to 51 percent with a win against Arizona. It’s worth noting that the Giants are on bye this week, and the Eagles and Commanders play one another on Sunday Night Football.
Given how awful the Cowboys have started the season, a 51 percent chance of making the postseason after the first eight games of the year would be a very good number for Dallas moving forward.
But what about a loss? Falling to the Cardinals in Week 8 would decrease their chances significantly, dropping them all the way down to just a 31 percent chance of making the postseason. This isn’t quite a must-win game for Dallas, but it’s pretty close.
What if the Cowboys win the next two games (vs. ARZ, at IND) as expected? How much would that shift the odds? Winning those two contests and getting to 5-4 after nine games would give Dallas a 61 percent chance of making the postseason. That doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to do it (obviously), but that would put them in a very good position going into the second half of the 2026 season.
The good news for Dallas is that the win over Philadelphia puts them in a position where they can now go on a run given their strength of schedule. If they can find a way to get to seven wins by Thanksgiving night, the Cowboys will be firmly in the playoff hunt for the remainder of the season.
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