You don’t need to be a football savant to know that the Week 6 matchup against the Green Bay Packers is a big one for the Dallas Cowboys.
With a 2-3 record after five weeks, the Cowboys are still somehow the current favorites to win the NFC East. But a loss on Sunday would dramatically shift those odds, and it’s not hard to envision a scenario where this season gets away from Dallas.
That said, this is a huge opportunity for the Cowboys to gain some ground in the NFC. A win against one of their biggest rivals on the road in primetime could be the type of game that turns the season around for Dallas. That kind of win would give them a ton of confidence going into Week 7, when the Cowboys face the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
But what are the current odds for the Cowboys to make the postseason? And what might they be if they win on Sunday Night Football? Let’s dive into all of the latest 2026 NFL Playoff odds:
The Cowboys are still in a good spot to make the NFL playoffs
Despite their 2-3 record, the Cowboys currently have a 41 percent chance to make the 2026 NFL Playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. That includes a 35 percent chance of winning the NFC East and hosting a home playoff game. They currently have a 6 percent chance to be a Wild Card team, but those odds actually rose slightly after the Seahawks lost on Thursday Night Football and fell to 3-3.
It’s worth mentioning that The Athletic gives the Eagles the second-best chance (26 percent) to win the NFC East. The Giants are just slightly behind them (23 percent) despite currently leading with a 3-1-1 record.
Let’s talk odds and what they would look like coming out of Week 6. These numbers obviously depend on what the other NFC East teams do this weekend, but the Cowboys would have a roughly 52 percent chance of making the playoffs if they beat the Packers on Sunday. Those odds would fall to 31 percent if Dallas lost.
There is also a scenario where the Eagles (without Jalen Hurts) and Giants lose in Week 6, and the Cowboys don’t really see their chances of making the playoffs move. That can’t be ruled out, as the NFC East is quickly turning into one of the worst divisions in the NFL.
But what about the best-case scenario? What if Dallas wins and the other three NFC East teams fall? At that point, the Cowboys would have a 57 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 50 percent chance of winning the NFC East. If that happened, they would suddenly feel very good about where they are in the NFC after six weeks.
A win would do wonders for Dallas' playoff odds
This is a very important game for Dallas for several reasons. They need to start stacking wins, and they need to prove to the rest of the league that the defense will get better as the season goes by.
But the truth is that next week (Week 7) is a far more important game for Dallas. Even if the Cowboys were to lose in Week 6, but were to get a win in Week 7, their odds of making the playoffs would dramatically rise despite going 1-1 in that stretch.
That doesn’t mean this game is pointless, but it’s a good reminder that this is just one game of 17 and how the Cowboys perform against the other NFC East teams this year will be much more impactful for their playoff chances.
Believe it or not, the Cowboys are still in a relatively good spot to make the postseason despite an awful start to the year. A win on Sunday Night Football would go a long way to convince fans that they actually have a chance to make some noise this season. And that matters more than their playoff odds going into Week 6.
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