Every time Dallas Cowboys fans are sitting on a fastball, NFL scriptwriters uncork a curveball that makes you question why you ever get excited anymore. That's exactly how it felt watching the Cowboys' 28-20 loss to the New York Giants.
It's impossible to know without asking the players, who'd probably never admit it, if Dallas overlooked the Giants in Week 1. Stylistically, New York isn't a great matchup for the Cowboys, but Brian Schottenheimer's group appeared shell-locked by the G-Men's hot start and masterful game plan.
In any event, Dallas must turn the page. It's typically too early to circle a Week 2 game as a must-win, but Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders absolutely meets that benchmark.
Falling to 0-2 would put the Cowboys in a precarious spot just as their schedule explodes in difficulty.
The Cowboys face a must-win game vs. the Commanders in Week 2
A lot of Cowboys fans picked a 2-0 start after the schedule was released. The Cowboys were a trendy Super Bowl pick in the weeks leading up to the season, and they've fared extremely well against New York and Washington with Dak Prescott as their starting quarterback.
Losing both contests wouldn't "end the season," but it'd be a potentially insurmountable hole to climb out of given the upcoming schedule.
- Week 3: vs. Ravens (in Brazil)
- Week 4: at Texans
- Week 5: vs. Buccaneers (TNF)
- Week 6: at Packers
- Week 7: at. Eagles
A home game against Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay is the easiest matchup during that stretch, but it'll be a short week for Dallas following a battle with a Houston team that might be the most physical in the NFL.
Oh, and if Week 1 was any indication, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud might have his swagger back. Following a historically bad playoff run, Stroud went toe-to-toe with Josh Allen, albeit in a losing effort, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions. His 106.7 passer rating was 10th among QBs in Week 1.
Lose to the Commanders, and the Cowboys must go no worse than 3-2 in that stretch. That would leave them with a 3-5 record, with favorable matchups against Arizona and Indianapolis on deck and a chance to claw back to .500 with eight games left to build a playoff case.
Of course, going 3-2 is hardly a guarantee.
Who's to say the season doesn't completely spiral if Dallas loses to Washington? You don't have to squint very hard to see the Cowboys falling to Baltimore and Houston.
At that point, you could stick a fork in the season, and questions would have to be asked about whether Brian Schottenheimer is the right man for the job.
The difference between starting 1-1 and 0-2 is gigantic
According to NBC New York, the 1992 San Diego Chargers are the only team in NFL history to make the playoffs after starting 0-4.
Starting 0-2 is hardly a death knell for playoff hopes, but history would not be on Dallas' side. Since the NFL implemented a 17-game regular season in 2021, just six of the 40 teams that started 0-2 have made the playoffs. And that doesn't even account for the difficulty of the Cowboys' upcoming schedule.
Take care of business against the Commanders, though, and Dallas will have more breathing room approaching that five-game gauntlet. A 3-2 record (or better) would prove that the Cowboys should be taken seriously, while even a 2-3 showing would leave them with a pulse.
The difference between a 1-1 record and a 0-2 hole is enormous. Like Grand Canyon, massive. One keeps the Cowboys on relatively stable footing entering the teeth of their schedule, and the other leaves them with almost no margin for error.
You can never fully write a team off before the calendar turns to October, but it’s no exaggeration to say the Cowboys’ season hangs in the balance on Sunday.
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