When the Dallas Cowboys dropped to 3-7 with a loss on Monday Night Football to the Houston Texans to close out Week 11, which marked their fifth straight defeat, the chances of America's Team making the NFL Playoffs for a fourth consecutive year were less than one percent.
But after improving to 4-7 with a Week 12 win over Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders and then to 5-7 with a victory over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day, the Cowboys saw their postseason odds improve.
Sure, it wasn't by much, but Dallas is still technically in the mix heading into another Monday-nighter in Week 14 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
There's no shot of the Cowboys winning the NFC East, as that would involve a monumental collapse from the Philadelphia Eagles, who improved to 10-2 on Sunday with a win over the Baltimore Ravens.
So, Dallas would need to win out and have Philly lose every game the rest of the way, which just isn't happening. It's not impossible, of course, but the likelihood is low. Plus, the Cowboys would also need several losses from the Commanders, who upped their record to 8-5 with a Week 13 win over the Tennessee Titans.
But they'll need some losses from Washington as it pertains to the wild-card race as well, which is where our focus will be as we take a look at where the Cowboys stand in the NFL playoff picture.
Updated NFC playoff picture and standings heading into Week 14
Here's what the NFC side of the bracket would look like if the postseason were to start tomorrow.
- Detroit Lions (11-1, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-2, 1st NFC East)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-5, 1st NFC West)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-6, 1st NFC South)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-2, 2nd NFC North)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3, 3rd NFC North)
- Washington Commanders (8-5, 2nd NFC East)
As you can see, the Commanders are in control of the final wild-card slot as they head into their bye week, and simple math tells us that Dallas is three games back of their longtime rivals in the win column.
But it's not as if the Cowboys are only chasing Washington, as they've got four other teams ahead of them in the wild-card race as well.
Heading into Week 14, Dallas is in the No. 12 slot in the NFC standings, trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 8, 6-6), Arizona Cardinals (No. 9, 6-6), Los Angeles Rams (No. 10, 6-6), and San Francisco 49ers (No. 11 5-7).
While the Cowboys and Niners hold the same 5-7 record, San Francisco wins the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head win over Dallas in Week 8.
Is a playoff berth likely? Probably not. But if the Cowboys can beat Cincy on Monday to get within two games of Washington, whom they've already beaten, things get a lot more interesting. They've got a Week 16 date with the Bucs in Dallas, which could now end up meaning something, and all these NFC West teams ahead of them have plenty of upcoming games with one another, all of which could go either way.
Again, it's a long shot, but the Cowboys aren't out of this thing just yet, and their Week 18 contest with the Commanders has an outside shot at being a win-and-in ballgame.