The Dallas Cowboys have managed to make the home stretch of the 2024 season interesting by winning their last two games. As much as Micah Parsons may believe the Cowboys can "make a run," the latest projections give the Cowboys a less-than-5% chance of making the playoffs.
They are still 12th in the NFC with a 5-7 record and the final Wild Card spot currently belongs to the Washington Commanders, who nearly have the inverse of Dallas' record at 8-5.
The Cowboys may need to run the table to even sniff the playoffs. Luckily, they have several winnable games left on their schedule. With a huge game upcoming on Monday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals, let's take a stab at predicting Dallas' final five games.
Predicting the final six games of the Cowboys' 2024 season
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This might be the most daunting game left on the schedule.
While the Bengals are mired in a disastrous 4-8 campaign, Joe Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season. He leads the NFL in passing yards (3,337), passing touchdowns (30), big-time throws (26) and passing grade (90.5). With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside, Cincinnati has one of the NFL's most potent offenses.
They are a terrible matchup for the Cowboys. There is a path to victory if Micah Parsons and the front seven can get to Burrow consistently. However, the thought of Chase and Higgins challening the backend of Dallas' secondary is giving us nightmares.
Prediction: 31-24 loss
Week 15 at Carolina Panthers
Don't be fooled by the Panthers' record. Bryce Young looks like a completely different quarterback since getting the starting job back. In the last four games, Young's thrown for 858 yards and five touchdowns to one interception. He's played better than those numbers suggest, too.
Before taking the Buccaneers to overtime on Sunday, Carolina lost to the Chiefs on a last-second field goal. They are not to be taken lightly.
With that said, we like how Dallas' defense matches up with the Panthers. While they have a sneaky-good rushing attack, their receivers don't scare anyone. Additionally, their defense ranks dead-last in points allowed and run defense, per Pro Football Reference.
Look for Mike Zimmer to dial up a great scheme and for the offense to sustain long drives and finish those drives with touchdowns.
Prediction: 27-17 win
Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (SNF)
The Cowboys' final primetime matchup of the year is a doozy against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Mayfield managed to keep Tampa Bay's season alive despite playing four games without top receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Bucky Irving and Rachaad White form one of the most dynamic backfields in the league. They will present a stiff challenge for Dallas' blossoming defense.
Like Carolina, though, the Bucs can't stop a nosebleed on defense. So long as Mike McCarthy schemes a game plan that accounts for the blitz (Tampa has dialed up the fifth-most blitzes in the NFL this season), we like the Cowboys to win this one by the skin of their teeth.
Prediction: 26-24
Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
As much as it pains us to admit, the Eagles are a great team. Saquon Barkley was the signing of the offseason, Jalen Hurts has taken care of the football and A.J. Brown is arguably the most valuable receiver in the NFL.
The real difference for Philadelphia this year, though, has been their defensive turnaround. Since Week 6 they are first in the following categories: points allowed per game, total defense, yards per play, three-and-out percentage, sacks and passing defense.
The Cowboys' only change of winning this is if the Eagles don't have anything to play for. Assuming they'll still be in contention for the No. 1 seed, though, Philly should win comfortably.
Prediction: 34-17
Week 18 vs Washington Commanders
The Cowboys will be 7-9 entering this matchup. Unless the NFC utterly collapses in the final month, Dallas will be playing spoiler against their division rival. That's better than nothing.
The 8-5 Commanders currently have the final Wild Card spot, but the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Rams are all knocking on the door at 6-6. They still have two playoff teams on their schedule in the Eagles and Falcons, so this could be a win-or-go-home game for Dan Quinn.
Dallas beat Washington in their backyard just two weeks ago and we'll undoubtedly see the best version of the Cowboys if they can eliminate Quinn's group. Assuming health, we like Dallas to complete the sweep of the Commanders and fall just shy of the playoffs with a 8-9 record.
Prediction: 24-21 win
An 8-9 record feels like the worse-case scenario, given the Cowboys were headed for a top-five pick a few weeks ago. However, it will say a lot about the players in the locker room that they didn't give up on the season when Dak Prescott went down.
Closing out the year by eliminating Washington is a worthwhile silver lining and the better-than-expected finish after Prescott's injury will carry over into 2025.