3. Dak Prescott finally breaks through this defense
It might be hard to believe but Dak Prescott has never lost to the 49ers in the regular season. He's only played them twice and has a record of 2-0, defeating them as a rookie in 2016 and then again in 2017. The Cowboys also beat them in 2020 by a score of 41-33 but that was with Andy Dalton under center.
Despite this success, Kyle Shanahan has absolutely owned this team in the playoffs over the past two seasons. Dan Quinn's defense has done its part to keep each of those games close, giving up 23 points in 2021 while the offense managed just 17 followed by a 19-point outing in 2022. That time, Dallas was able to score just 12 points and then had one of the worst last-second play calls of all time which left an Ezekiel Elliot imprint on the turf.
All of that is being said to point out that this defense will keep the game from being a shootout — as they have done in the past. That means it will fall on the shoulders of Dak Prescott, who should have plenty of time to throw now that his offensive line is fully healthy for the first time since 2021.
That's enough for him to shake off the two subpar performances he's had against this team in the playoffs and put up enough points for this offense to win. He might not throw for 300 yards but look for at least 250 with two touchdowns and no interceptions.