Cowboys Super Bowl 58 odds: Dallas poised for deep postseason run
For the majority of the season, the Dallas Cowboys looked like they were locked into a Wild Card spot, but after getting hot late in the season and an implosion by the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and will host at least two playoff games if they can get past the opening round.
As a result, the Cowboys are one of the top favorites to win Super Bowl 58 and finally end their championship drought.
Cowboys odds to win Super Bowl 58
The Dallas Cowboys are +750 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl. When translated to implied probability, the Cowboys have an 11.76% chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
If you bet $100 on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, you'd profit $750 if they're able to achieve the feat. Bet on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel now!
Can the Cowboys win the Super Bowl?
I can confidently say this is the best chance the Cowboys have had to win the Super Bowl in the Dak Prescott era. Not only are they the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but let's take a look at where they rank in several key metrics:
- Net Yards per Play: 6th
- Average scoring margin: 2nd
- EPA per play: 2nd
- Success rate: 3rd
- Opponent EPA per play: 4th
- Opponent success rate: 22nd
The Cowboys are the only playoff team that ranks inside the top five in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play, making them arguably the best well-balanced team in the NFL.
If you're looking at the above stats you're likely wondering why their "opponent success rate" is such an outlier. "Success rate" doesn't measure outlier plays the same as "EPA" does. In as simple terms as possible, the Cowboys defense may not be as good as other teams on a play-to-play basis, but based on their EPA ranking, they make up for it in explosive plays like sacks, takeaways, or defensive touchdowns, which is where the Cowboys thrive.
Locking up the No. 2 seed ensures the Cowboys won't have to face the 49ers until the NFC Championship. If the 49ers get upset in the Divisional Round, Dallas will have a clear path to the Super Bowl. Even if they do face the 49ers with a Super Bowl berth on the line, expect it to be a lot closer than their Week 5 meeting that resulted in a 42-10 win for the Cowboys.
Of course, before they talk about any team past the Wild Card Round, they need to beat the Packers.
Packers vs. Cowboys odds
The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites against the Packers with the total set at 50.5. Based on -345 moneyline odds, the Cowboys have a 76.47% of winning the game.
Who will the Cowboys play in the Divisional Round?
The Cowboys, if they're able to beat the Packers in the Wild Card Round, are guaranteed to host a second playoff game in the Divisional Round with the 49ers hosting the other.
Who they will play is a completely different question. We know they won't play the Rams, due to the Rams being guaranteed to face the 49ers as the No. 6 seed if the Cowboys and Los Angeles both win their respective games.
That leaves the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Philadelphia Eagles as potential Divisional Round opponents. If the Lions defeat the Rams, the Lions will head to Dallas for a rematch of their Week 17 showdown. If the Rams beat the Lions, the Cowboys will take on the winner of the Buccaneers and Eagles.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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