Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for Thanksgiving Day

A full betting trend for NFL Week 12 action on Thanksgiving Day between the Commanders and Cowboys.
Nov 19, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4)
Nov 19, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys will continue their yearly tradition of playing on Thanksgiving Day and this time they'll host the Washington Commanders in an NFC East battle.

We all expect the Cowboys to win the game, but covering the spread may be a different story. Dallas has been terrible against the spread on Thanksgiving, sporting a 1-11 record ATS over its last 12 Thanksgiving Day games. Will that trend break this year?

Check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets" to find out my picks for all 16 NFL Week 12 games.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys odds, spread, and total

Commanders vs. Cowboys betting trends

  • Cowboys are 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 games vs. Commanders
  • Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
  • The OVER is 7-1 the last eight times the Commanders played in Dallas
  • Commanders are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in November
  • Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games

Commanders vs. Cowboys injury reports

Washington Commanders injury report

  • James Smith-Williams - DE - Questionable
  • Alex Armah - RB - Questionable
  • Efe Obada - DE - IR
  • Antonio Gibson - RB - Questionable
  • De'Jon Harris - LB - Questionable

Dallas Cowboys injury report

  • Terence Steele - OT - Questionable
  • Jayron Kearse - S - Questionable
  • CeeDee Lamb - WR - Questionable
  • Peyton Hendershot - TE - IR-R
  • Rico Dowdle - RB - Questionable

Commanders vs. Cowboys how to watch

  • Date: Thursday, November 23
  • Game Time: 4:30 pm et
  • Venue: AT&T Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Washington Commanders Record: 4-7
  • Dallas Cowboys Record: 7-3

Commanders vs. Cowboys key players to watch

Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson: The weakness of this Cowboys team is their run defense. They're allowing teams to average 4.1 yards per carry against them and even last week, the lowly Panthers averaged 4.8 yards per carry against them. That means that if the Commanders want any hope of upsetting Dallas, they need Brian Robinson to have a big game.

Dallas Cowboys:

Micah Parsons: The Washington Commanders offensive line has given up 4.6 sacks per game, the second most in the NFL next to only the Giants. Now, they have to take on a Cowboys team that is averaging 3.3 sacks per game. Micah Parsons has already racked up 10.0 sacks this season and he could add to that total in a big way on Thursday.

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction and pick

I claimed the Cowboys were fraudulent early in the year but they have impressed me lately, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +2.5 over their last three games, and they know how to beat up on bad teams, which is exactly what the Commanders are. I've been much lower on the Commanders than most people have been all season and I'm not about to change my mind now.

Their defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent yards per play. Most notably, they're 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt. This Cowboys offense is going to be able to carve them up.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys pass rush is going to eat up this Commanders offensive line that is giving up the second most sacks per game this season. I can't see how Washington plans to go toe-to-toe with this team.

I'll take Dallas to cover the double-digit spread on Thanksgiving.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!