It sure felt like Jake Ferguson was going to make the Pro Bowl this season for the Dallas Cowboys. In the first seven weeks of the year, Ferguson caught 51 passes for 334 yards and six touchdowns, putting him on a pace for 124 receptions, 811 yards and nearly 15 touchdowns. While that type of stat line seemed unrealistic, it does show how much he’s regressed over the last two months.
Over the last eight games, Ferguson has caught just 29 passes for 255 yards and one touchdown. He has more fumbles (3) than touchdowns (1) and has had multiple penalties during that stretch. And there is no doubt that he looks like a shell of himself, especially when you compare his play to the 2022 and 2023 seasons. So, what has happened to Ferguson? And can he begin to justify the contract extension the Cowboys game him this offseason?
One very revealing stat tells the story of Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson
The Cowboys signed Ferguson to an extension during training camp, making him the eighth-highest-paid tight end in the league. It was a somewhat surprising move considering Ferguson was coming off a season in which his receptions, yards, and touchdowns all took a massive dip.
However, those numbers were somewhat explainable considering he injured his knee in Week 1 and by the time he was fully healthy, Dak Prescott was out for the second half of the season. But the goal should always be to pay players who are ascending, not to pay for past production. But that might not be the case here as Ferguson's production is clearly in decline.
There is really no excuse for the lack of production this season, outside of the touchdowns. He’s averaging just 39.3 yards per game this season, which is 17th among tight ends this season with at least 20 receptions. And if you care about Pro Football Focus grades, he ranks 51st among 76 qualifying tight ends. It’s the second season in a row where he’s posted an overall grade below 60 (58.8), which is deemed an average score.
But the most damning stat regarding Ferguson is how pedestrian he’s been after the catch this year. Early in his career, that was his calling card, and it’s the reason why he earned the starting tight end role in 2023. But since his rookie year, his yards after the catch per reception has dropped in every season. Here is how those numbers have stacked up each season via Pro Football Reference:
2022: 6.53 YAC/reception
2023: 5.99 YAC/reception
2024: 5.24 YAC/reception
2025: 3.83 YAC/reception
Could the drop in YAC be blamed on the offense? It’s possible, but one would think that the presence of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens would open up the middle for the field for Ferguson. What is very telling is that Ferguson’s 3.83 YAC/reception rank near the very bottom of the league for tight ends, coming in at 29th out of 33 qualifying tight ends. Travis Kelce, at the age of 36, is averaging over 6.0 YAC/reception, which unfortunately, says a lot about the current play of Ferguson.
We know Ferguson isn’t a strong blocker, and he’s not the most dynamic receiver at the catch point. His calling card has been his ability to make plays after the catch and just hasn’t been the case this season. He’s now averaging a career-low 7.4 yards per reception, which is among the lowest in the league among tight ends.
Consider this: Jason Witten, who has never been viewed as a dynamic deep threat, never had a year under 8.4 yards per reception in his 16-year career with Dallas. Witten is a future Hall of Famer, but even the 37-year-old version of him was more explosive than this version of Ferguson. That is very concerning.
The Cowboys have Ferguson locked up for the next several years, and he will be their starting Week 1 tight end in 2026. But they need more from him. It’s clear that he’s put on some weight/muscle to help in the run game, but he’s still a poor blocker, and the tradeoff in the passing game isn’t working out.
If Ferguson can’t bounce back in 2026, it might be time for the Cowboys to consider cutting bait despite the new contract. This offense needs a dynamic weapon in the middle of the field, and unfortunately, Ferguson has bogged down the unit and hasn’t been the difference-maker that we once hoped for earlier in his career. Simply put, the Cowboys need more from Ferguson in 2026.