The NFL playoff picture is starting to come into focus. While all of the seeding isn't set in stone, we have a good idea of which teams will be competing for a Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys won't be involved, but they will have championship aspirations in 2025 once they reload this offseason.
With one week left in the regular season, it's not too early to look ahead to next season. Amid the Cowboys' recent hot streak, fans have rooted for losses in the name of getting the best draft pick possible. Those folks got what they wanted in Sunday's loss to the Eagles.
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With Dallas' season technically "over", let's rank the teams that won't make the playoffs based on their odds of winning next year's Super Bowl.
Before we dive in, it's important to note the Bengals and Dolphins both kept their playoff hopes alive by winning this weekend. Their respective playoff fates, along with the Broncos, Buccaneers and Falcons, will come down to the final week of the regular season.
NFL Standings:
AFC | NFC |
|---|---|
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) | 1. Detroit Lions (13-2) |
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3) | 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) |
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) | 3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) |
4. Houston Texans (9-7) | 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) |
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) | 5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2) |
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) | 6. Green Bay Packers (11-5) |
7. Denver Broncos (9-7) | 7. Washington Commanders (10-5) |
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) | 8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) |
9. Miami Dolphins (7-9) | 9. Atlanta Falcons |
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9) | 10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) |
11. New York Jets (4-12) | 11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9) |
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12) | 12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9) |
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) | 13. New Orleans Saints (5-11) |
14. Cleveland Browns (3-13) | 14. Chicago Bears (4-12) |
15. Tennessee Titans (3-13) | 15. Carolina Panthers (4-12) |
16. New England Patriots (3-1) | 16. New York Giants (3-13) |
14. New York Giants
The Giants are the worst team in football. What other fan base drops thousands of dollars every home game to send planes over MetLife Stadium that carry messages directed at the team's owner? The answer is zero.
To make matters worse, New York beat the Colts on Sunday. They entered the weekend in pole position to land the No. 1 overall pick and select a quarterback. By winning, they dropped to the No. 4 pick, which puts them in no-man's land.
General manager Joe Schoen appears in over his head, while Brian Daboll has suffered a fall from grace after winning Coach of the Year two years ago. The Giants are the same spot they've been for almost a decade: Years away from contention.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
By beating the Jaguars in Week 16, the Raiders dropped from the No. 1 pick to the sixth pick. Not a great argument for the non-tankers of the world. Las Vegas feels like a perfect match for Shedeur Sanders, but now they might have to take the best player available.
Rookie sensation Brock Bowers is a building block for their offense, but the Raiders need a new quarterback more than anything. Assuming they can't draft one of Sanders or Ward, Justin Fields might be their best option and he has a career 14-30 record and 93.3 passer rating.
12. Cleveland Browns
The Browns restructured Deshaun Watson's contract this week, but it all but guarantees he'll remain in Cleveland through the 2026 season. As long as Watson is under center, the Browns won't win more than seven games. That is a real shame because the roster has multiple win-now pieces.
Myles Garrett is chief among them and he hinted a few weeks ago that he's not interested in rebuilding. The front office has to decide whether to sell off some veteran pieces or try to contend with Watson who's on one of the worst contracts in NFL history.
11. New Orleans Saints
Ignoring the salary cap for years has finally come home to roost for the Saints. They have six players (!) over 30 years old who will consume about $140 million of next year's salary cap.
Even with the cap expected to jump another $20 million, New Orleans is projected to be $63.7 million over the cap in 2025. That includes $48 million in dead money. The Saints will need to gut the roster to get cap-compliant so they could be headed for a brutal season.
10. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are such a weird team to analyze. Their defense is the sole reason they've won three games. They need to improve their pass rush this offseason, but 2024 is a strong foundation for Tennessee to build on that side of the ball.
On offense, the Titans need to throw a bag at Sam Darnold. If you put Darnold under center with Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears and potentially a new receiver to start opposite Ridley, Tennessee can contend for a Wild Card spot next year.
9. New England Patriots
The future in Foxborough is bright thanks to No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. The UNC product absolutely passes the eye test and will be a good quarterback for a long time. He'll achieve stardom so long as the Patriots improve the offensive line and wide receiver room.
While May is the answer, the jury is still out on head coach Jerod Mayo. Owner Robert Kraft already said he wants to give Mayo another year. The arrow in New England is pointing up, but a flawed roster paired with an unproven head coach lead us to think they might not be relevant until 2026.
However, with the Giants' win over the Colts on Sunday, the Patriots currently hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They would clinch the top pick with a loss versus the Bills in Week 18. That would be a franchise-altering win.
8. Chicago Bears
After a 4-2 start, the Bears have lost 10 straight games. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams hasn't had the rookie season many envisioned but it's hard to judge his first year given his coaching and offensive line has been a disaster.
A new head coach could change everything for Chicago and Williams. Some believe they need a hard-nosed coach like Mike vrabel, but what they really need is to make an all-out assault for Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
7. New York Jets
Despite the Jets' perpetual dysfunction, they won't be irrelevant next season so long as Aaron Rodgers returns. The bigger concern is New York's defense, which had top-five aspirations before the season and has been an absolute disaster.
Sauce Gardner took a major step back, while D.J. Reed struggled with penalties and Quinnen Williams wasn't nearly as disruptive. The Jets also need to figure out what's going on with Garrett Wilson, who sounds like he's fed up with the franchise's habit of losing.
Despite all of that, the roster has enough talent to flirt with 8-10 wins if they make the right hire at head coach.
6. Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young's confidence has improved leaps and bounds. He's finally looking like the Heisman Trophy winner who dominated at Alabama in terms of navigating the pocket and making throws off-script.
Young's turnaround is reason to be bullish on Carolina moving forward, but this roster needs a lot of work, particularly at wide receiver and the defensive side of the ball. If they get Young a Tee Higgins or Chris Godwin this offseason, the Panthers will be a team to watch in 2025.
5. Indianapolis Colts
Should the Colts stick with Anthony Richardson? They've won seven games in spite of Richardson's lowly completion percentage and rollercoaster efficiency. For all of Richardson's flaws and rawness, he opens up Indy's potent rushing attack and he's been victimized by drops.
An improvement at quarterback would make the Colts legit, but general manager Chris Ballard has swung and missed many a time in the veteran QB department. After Sunday's embarrassing loss to the Giants, which eliminated Indy from playoff contention, Ballard might not get another chance to address the position.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are just two seasons removed from winning a playoff game and giving the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs a hard fight in the Divisional Round. With a healthy Trevor Lawrence, there's reason to believe Jacksonville can get back in the playoffs next year.
They hit a home run on first-round wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and their free-agent list isn't debilitating. They absolutely need to make a change at offensive coordinator, but the focus this offseason should be overhauling the defensive secondary. If the Jags do that, they can make some noise in 2025.
3. Arizona Cardinals
After a 6-4 start, the Cardinals have lost four of five to derail their playoff hopes. Second half Kyler Murray has reared its ugly head as his efficiency has dropped off a cliff since the calendar turned to November.
Additionally, No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr., whom many believed would be a day one superstar, has had an up-and-down rookie year, including having his effort brought into question. Assuming Murray and Harrison get on the same page next year, Arizona should be right in the thick of the NFC playoff picture.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys made the playoffs three straight years before this season and they've won seven games with one week left to play with a decimated roster. There is something to be said about that.
While a variety of positions need to be upgraded this offseason, Dallas can contend for a Super Bowl next year with better health and a couple marquee signings. Re-signing Jourdan Lewis and Osa Odighizuwa would really help the cause.
The following players have missed multiple games in 2024: Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Trevon Diggs, DeMarcus Lawrence, DeMarvion Overshown, Eric Kendricks, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, Marshawn Kneeland, Markquese Bell, Josh Butler, Juanyeh Thomas, Sam Williams and Caelen Carson. That's a huge chunk of the payroll and some vital depth pieces.
While we still don't know whom will coach Dallas next season, this is one of the 10 best teams in football even at 90% health.
1. San Francisco 49ers
A big offseason looms for the reigning NFC champs.
First and foremost, they have to decide how much to pay quarterback Brock Purdy, who's had a rollercoaster season. Furthermore, cornerback Charvarius Ward, safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw are all free agents.
Not only that, but Christian McCaffrey will turn 29 in June coming off an injury-riddled year, while No. 1 receiver Brandon Aiyuk is coming off ACL surgery and star left tackle Trent Williams turns 37 in July and struggled to stay healthy. Deebo Samuel also doesn't look like the same player.
The 49ers have more questions than in recent years, but most of their core is still in-tact and Kyle Shanahan is among the best head coaches in the sport. They had the worst injury luck of any team this season. While some players might not be back, don't be shocked if San Francisco has some of the best odds to win next year's Super Bowl.