The NFL preseason also doubles as prediction season, and with games that matter mere weeks away, our Minute Media colleague, Sports Illustrated senior writer Conor Orr, has released his annual prognostication piece in which he attempts to forecast the outcome of all 272 regular-season games.
It's a daunting exercise, of course, but it's always entertaining to examine such a thorough process. So, how does Orr see things playing out for the Dallas Cowboys in 2025?
Truth be told, his assessment of America's Team is actually a little bit confusing at times, as he has them beating both Super Bowl participants from a season ago in back-to-back weeks but also has them dropping games to opponents that couldn't even get to five wins last year.
At the same time, however, there's a solid chance that it could turn out to be pretty accurate, given the up-and-down nature of this franchise.
We'll dive into some specifics momentarily, but let's first have a look at Orr's game-by-game projections for Brian Schottenheimer & Co.
Week | Opponent | Prediction (Record) |
|---|---|---|
1 | at Eagles | Loss (0-1) |
2 | vs. Giants | Loss (0-2) |
3 | at Bears | Loss (0-3) |
4 | vs. Packers | Win (1-3) |
5 | at Jets | Win (2-3) |
6 | at Panthers | Win (3-3) |
7 | vs. Commanders | Win (4-3) |
8 | at Broncos | Loss (4-4) |
9 | vs. Cardinals | Win (5-4) |
10 | Bye | N/A (5-4) |
11 | at Raiders | Loss (5-5) |
12 | vs. Eagles | Win (6-5) |
13 | vs. Chiefs | Win (7-5) |
14 | at Lions | Loss (7-6) |
15 | vs. Vikings | Win (8-6) |
16 | vs. Chargers | Loss (8-7) |
17 | at Commanders | Loss (8-8) |
18 | at Giants | Win (9-8) |
As you can see, he's got the Cowboys ending the season at 9-8, which would put them in third place in the NFC East for the second straight year, finishing behind both the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders, who he has tying for the division lead at 10-7, with Philly taking the tiebreaker.
As you've likely already guessed, a 9-8 finish in this world would keep Dallas out of the NFC playoff picture, which Orr sees shaking out like this:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)
- San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
- Detroit Lions (10-7)
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
- Washington Commanders (10-7)
So, let's break this down a bit.
His prediction on the Cowboys losing to the Eagles in the season opener is understandable, although one could argue that Philly will be so jacked up with emotion with the banner raising and such that Dallas could come in and pull off an upset. But a loss is the more likely scenario, which Shaquille O'Neal certainly won't enjoy.
But a defeat at home to the Giants in Week 2? Not so much. Yes, Big Blue should be better than the three-win team they had a season ago, and Orr predicts they'll double that win total in 2025. But here's the thing.
Since getting swept by the Giants as a rookie in 2016, Dak Prescott hasn't lost to them since, going 13-0. And from an overall standpoint, New York has gone just 1-15 against Dallas over the last eight years, the only victory coming in the 2020 regular-season finale when Dak was on the shelf with an ankle injury. Perhaps the Giants are due, but unless Prescott goes down in Week 1, expect the Cowboys' dominance in this rivalry to continue.
That Week 2 matchup is actually part of the confusion I mentioned earlier. So, Orr believes the Cowboys can lose to teams like the Giants, Bears, and Raiders, who went a combined 12-39 a season ago, but can then take down the Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back games?
And let's not forget that matchup with the Chiefs is on a short week, as that represents the Cowboys' annual Thanksgiving game. Yes, Kansas City has a short week as well, but they'll be coming out of a contest with the Colts, not the defending champs. Dallas fans should be ecstatic about the prediction, of course, but, again, it's a bit confusing.
Orr does attempt to explain some of his reasoning for his choices in his full assessment of America's Team, which reads as follows:
"When creating a fantastical world of your own imagination, there’s no reason not to build in a three-game losing streak amid a potential holdout by Micah Parsons. Truly, this is the stuff that dreams are made of—an owner getting skewered and a star player not backing down, despite the pressure on him to sign a deal.
"From there, it’s going to be your fairly typical Cowboys season - winning some big games in prime time, losing some really, really confounding games late in the season and coming up short in the critical moments against truly premium players and coaches."
It's honestly difficult to argue with a lot of what he says, as so many Dallas seasons have played out in exactly that fashion. But wouldn't the Eagles and Chiefs fall under the category of "truly premium players and coaches?"
These are all predictions, of course, so perhaps reading too much into any of this is a futile exercise. But again, it's entertaining. And it signifies that the season is close, which is always a good thing.
Only time will tell if these predictions come to fruition, but one thing we can guarantee is that the 2025 Dallas Cowboys won't be boring.