How the Cowboys are eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16

The Cowboys have managed to keep their playoff hopes alive for far longer than expected, but they're running out of weeks.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy | Jared C. Tilton/GettyImages

For a little over a month now, everyone — both fans and haters alike — has been waiting for the Dallas Cowboys to be officially knocked out of the NFC playoff picture.

The many, many haters of America's Team, of course, are always happy watching this franchise suffer. And the supporters have simply wanted to stop hoping for some sort of miracle that was never likely to come so they could start looking at how things could improve for next season, whether in free agency or via the 2025 NFL Draft.

Back on November 18, not long after losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury, Dallas suffered a fifth straight defeat in a 34-10 drubbing at the hands of the Houston Texans.

With the loss, the Cowboys fell to 3-7 for the season, and their chances of making the playoffs for the fourth straight season dropped to one percent.

Since then, however, Dallas has won three of four, earning victories over the Washington Commanders, the New York Giants, and most recently, the Carolina Panthers. And the one game the Cowboys lost to the Cincinnati Bengals likely would've been a victory had it not been for that botched blocked punt fiasco.

This past week, Mike McCarthy & Co. were able to stave off elimination by getting past Carolina. But time is obviously not on their side at this point.

With the win over the Panthers, the Cowboys improved to 6-8 on the season. They're obviously well out of the race for the NFC East, as they're six back of the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles, and the only wild-card spot available to them at this point is the last one, which is currently held by the Commanders, who enter Week 16 at 9-5.

That obviously doesn't give Dallas much (or any) wiggle room with which to work.

A Cowboys loss or a Washington win in Week 16 knocks Dallas out of the playoff hunt

While several other teams are involved in the race for the No. 7 seed, the only one that matters for the Cowboys this week is Washington, as the Commanders are the only team they're trailing by three games.

That makes for some very simple math and some straightforward scenarios.

If the Commanders beat or tie the Eagles on Sunday afternoon, Dallas is out. And no matter what happens in the Washington-Philly matchup, if the Cowboys lose or tie the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football, Dallas is out.

That's it. Those are the only elimination scenarios for the Cowboys.

  • Washington lose/tie vs. Eagles
  • Cowboys lose/tie vs. Buccaneers

If the Cowboys win and the Commanders lose, Dallas survives for at least one more week.

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