George Pickens prediction will have Cowboys fans screaming ‘here we go again’

Dallas Cowboys v Las Vegas Raiders - NFL 2025
Dallas Cowboys v Las Vegas Raiders - NFL 2025 | Ian Maule/GettyImages

Trading for George Pickens was ridiculed at the time because that is generally the prevailing reaction when the Dallas Cowboys make a big move. The move didn't come without risk, but Pickens quickly proved that consistent quarterback play is why he didn't achieve stardom in Pittsburgh.

Pickens was a second-team All-Pro in 2025 after catching 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. It was a dream contract year, and now the Cowboys must make a hard decision about his future.

Nothing Jerry Jones or Stephen Jones has said suggests that Pickens will be playing elsewhere in 2026, but that doesn't mean negotiations won't get messy.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler polled executives, coaches, and scouts from around the NFL to make some predictions for the 2026 offseason. The blurb on Pickens will have Cowboys fans experiencing painful déjà vu.

"The Cowboys are expected to franchise-tag Pickens, which would pay him around $28 million next season," Fowler writes. "But Pickens will want a long-term deal above that number, and if Dallas doesn't give him that, some around the league wonder whether he stays away from the team for a large portion of the offseason or even training camp."

Jeremy Fowler fully expects the Cowboys to franchise-tag George Pickens

That reads painfully familiar.

The Cowboys have negotiated top-of-the-market deals with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons in each of the last two offseasons. Of course, the Parsons negotiation got so contentious that it severed Parsons' relationship with Jerry Jones, and Dallas traded Parsons to the Packers in August.

Lamb didn't sign until the very end of 2024 training camp. As such, he trained away from the team all summer. That proved costly, as he and Prescott were not on the same page when the season started. That is another drawback of the Joneses' negotiation methods.

Prescott didn’t sign until the morning of Dallas’ Week 1 game. Because he wasn’t under contract beyond 2024, his Cowboys future would have been in question had a deal not been finalized before kickoff.

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That’s how the Joneses negotiate. They believe “deadlines make deals” and don’t show any real urgency until the clock is nearly at midnight.

While franchise-tagging Pickens will prevent him from signing with another team and give Dallas until July 15 to get a deal done, it will set the stage for another drawn-out negotiation that could get a little messy.

"I just don't see him, coming off the season he had, welcoming the tag with open arms," a veteran AFC coach told Fowler.

Just like Lamb, Pickens will have every right to stay away from the team until he signs. With significant money at stake, risking injury in practice would make little sense. After the season he put together, a deal north of $30 million per year is justified.

That price will make the Joneses blush, but they've expressed regret about wasting one of Prescott's best seasons in 2025. If they are serious about maximizing the remainder of his contract, they'll cave and pay Pickens what he deserves.

Either way, Cowboys fans should prepare for yet another familiar contract standoff.

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