George Pickens is creating wild complication for Cowboys' front office

Coming off of a high-profile win over Kansas City on Thanksgiving the Dallas Cowboys are now a threat to make the playoffs. And as their prolific offense continues to shine, it is their equally high-profile wide receiver George Pickens acquired via trade this year, that they can thank in part.

Pickens has already easily eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. His 73 catches, 1,142 yards, and 8 touchdowns now rank 7th, 2nd, and 3rd in the NFL, respectively, with a large balance of the week 13 action still to come. Pickens is doing all of this while paying out the last year of his rookie contract.

Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones gave up a third-round pick to acquire Pickens but opted not to work out a contract extension with the mercurial pass catcher. Jones - as he oft likes to do - decided to kick the can down the road and make Pickens prove he is worth a high-priced contract. His star receiver has more than obliged, outpacing his handsomely paid teammate CeeDee Lamb across every receiving category.

The Cowboys are rapidly approaching an expensive decision on what to do with their burgeoning superstar.

Looking at comps for George Pickens' next contract

Like the housing market, NFL contracts are driven by comparable deals. Markets are driven by likeness. And so with Pickens we can look at some comparable deals to find a right-sized contract. In order to find the most accurate projection it is best to look at draft comps, production comps and finally a team comp.

Draft Comps

Pickens was the 11th receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, taken 52nd overall. Three of his contemporaries have already signed extensions. Christian Watson of the Packers, Garrett Wilson of the Jets and Jameson Williams of the Lions. Watson has been injury plagued for much of his career, so he is not a strong comp. But Williams and Wilson provide strong platform year's to stack Pickens' current pace to.

*Note In order to create an apples-to-apples comparison I will be extrapolating Picken's season-to-date performance across an entire 17-game season.

Pickens' platform year easily clears his draft mates in almost every measurable area, giving him a strong case to get a higher average annual salary. The Cowboys could try to argue that Wilson had a longer track record of success, but I doubt that argument will win the day. Nico Collins earned a mega deal in 2024 off the strength of a incredible platform year, setting up the precedent.

Wilson's $32.5 million APY sets the floor for Pickens from this perspective. Accounting for cap inflation - as the 2026 salary cap is likely to be at least 7.5% higher than the current $279.2 million mark puts Pickens' target at almost $35 million.

Production Comps

Looking beyond his own draft class it makes sense to look for other relevant comps. Looking at Pickens' 3-year production a fantastic comp comes to light. Ironically, it's the receiver that made him expendable in Pittsburgh.

Both receivers are former second round picks who profile as perimeter ball winners. Pickens is the more efficient player while Metcalf has a large lead as a scorer. Still, Metcalf is perhaps the best profile to pin a potential extension for Pickens to. Metcalf's APY on his original extension was $24 million in 2022. That year the NFL salary cap was $208.2 million. Adjust that for a projected $300 million cap in 2026 and an appropriate APY for Pickens would be $34.5 million. This aligns well with the draft comp from Wilson.

Team Comp

Given Lamb is just one years removed from his own near record-setting deal it works well to look at Pickens against the man he lines up opposite on the field. Lamb also serves as one of the best platform year comps for Pickens as well.

Lamb's platform season was stronger than Pickens' impressive campaign this year. And this works to create the ceiling for what Dallas will likely agree to. For better or worse teams will often create pecking orders within positional groups when it comes to paying players.

Lamb's APY is $34 million. If Dallas decides that because of his stronger career leading up to his signing, including his platform year, they may tell Pickens' representation that the most they are willing to go to is $33.5 million per year to keep Lamb at the top of the pecking order.

Finding the deal and the franchise tag

All of this creates a tight range for a potential deal between $33.5 million and $35 million per year. Dallas likes longer-term extensions for their mega stars, so four years will likely be what they are pushing for. Four years and $134 million would keep him just under Lamb. It would make him the fourth-highest paid receiver on an APY basis. $65 million fully guaranteed and $97.5 million total guaranteed would also lock in just behind Lamb.

Because Pickens and his camp will have strong arguments to eclipse Lamb, paired with his capricious reputation as well as Jones' penchant for acrimonious negotiations, the likelihood this deal comes to fruition easily is low at best. This will lead Dallas to use the franchise tag. It is currently projected by Over The Cap at $28,046,000. Compared to the salaries being bandied about, this represents a small value for the Cowboys.

But in true Jones fashion, all that does is once again kick the can down the road. The two sides will be right back where they started in 2027. At that point, the second tag on Pickens would be an estimated $33,655,200. The further downside to this plan is how much salary cap Pickens would occupy under the tags. Those numbers cannot be manipulated with void years.

The best route for all parties is for an extension to transpire. But if Pickens picks up his pace just a bit more, he's going to eliminate the Lamb ceiling and put the Cowboys in yet another tense negotiation window with a player looking to reset a market.