The Dallas Cowboys weren't as far away as people thought last season. Sure, the team won just seven games, but the unit ranked seventh in points scored per game and might have the best trio of playmakers in the NFL in George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Javonte Williams.
Both Pickens and Lamb hit the 1,000-yard mark, and Williams enjoyed a breakout season, earning the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. With Pickens and Williams both back in the picture for at least one more season, it's hard to imagine how the Cowboys' offense isn't again at least a top-10 unit.
Dak Prescott has also consistently been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league and has been a known commodity for a decade now, but this latest Cowboys' prediction for 2026 pours a bunch of cold water over the substantial progress this team made in the offseason.
Bleacher Report predicts a 9-8 Dallas Cowboys season for 2026
A 9-8 season would obviously be an improvement, but it would feel rather disappointing given the amount of change the team has made. Moe Moton talked about the prediction further:
"Dallas made much-needed changes on the defensive side of the ball after giving up the most points and third-most yards last season. Head coach Brian Schottenmeier hired former Philadelphia Eagles defensive backs coach and defensive pass coordinator Christian Parker to fill a key vacancy on his staff.
In Philadelphia, Parker helped develop cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and versatile defensive back Cooper DeJean into All-Pro players within their first two years. He could do the same with rookie safety Caleb Downs, who can line up in different spots on the back end of the defense. Also, fourth-year veteran Cobie Durant brings quality experience to the cornerback group.
The Cowboys' pass rush will be the difference between a mediocre defense and a much-improved unit.
They acquired Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers and selected Malachi Lawrence in the first round of the draft. The new edge-rushers will join Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark to shore up the defensive front. Edge-rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku could see some growth in his second year.
Dallas will face the NFC West and AFC South, two top-heavy divisions that combined for five 12-plus-win teams last season. The Cowboys will win more games than they did in 2025, but they still miss the playoffs."
Dallas' defense was the worst in the league in 2025 - 32 out of 32 teams in points allowed per game. Replacing former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus with Christian Parker was one of the first things this team did this offseason. Parker is from the Vic Fangio tree, and Fangio's defenses have been replicated all across the league.
Even replacing Eberflus with Parker presents a substantial improvement. The Cowboys didn't stop there, though, adding new faces like Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, and Otito Ogbonnia. It's been a defensive-heavy offseason, and it's been the type of roster turnover that this team has needed.
Suddenly, even without Micah Parsons in the picture, the Dallas defensive line is noticeably better than it was in 2025. Key veterans in Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, and Gary have played a ton of football and bring a wealth of experience and a history of solid play to the defense.
The EDGE room, even while still needing another boost, boasts some young, encouraging talent like Donovan Ezeiruaku and new key rookies in Lawrence and LT Overton. Adding Thompson, Downs, and even P.J. Locke III to the secondary presents notable upgrades over the 2025 unit.
What the Cowboys did exceptionally well this offseason was add key defensive players in all three phases. They didn't just load up in an emotional, knee-jerk reaction to 2025. Parker's unit boasts talent all over the place, and with how good the offense can be, Dallas might not need more than an average defense to hit double-digit wins.
And this isn't some random take, either - in 2025, the Chicago Bears had the 9th-ranked scoring offense and the 23rd-ranked scoring defense, and won 11 games. The Pittsburgh Steelers were 15th in scoring and 17th in points allowed, but finished with 10 wins and an AFC North title.
Is it crazy to suggest that Dallas could again finish 7th in scoring but perhaps finish, let's say, 18th in points allowed and win 10 or 11 games in 2026? Not at all. Three of Dallas' losses in 2025 were one-score games, and they also had a 40-40 tie against Green Bay, so there are obvious margins for this team to close.
Given how many new faces the team added on defense, and the upside of the offense, a 9-8 record prediction might not be accurate. Dallas' roster is in a good spot and has a clear, obvious path to 10 wins in 2026.
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