Despite surging into postseason contention over the last three weeks with wins over the Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs, the Dallas Cowboys couldn't really afford to take a loss in their Week 14 matchup with the Detroit Lions.
Unfortunately for America's Team, however, that's not how things played out on Thursday night, as the Cowboys took a crushing 44-30 defeat, thus falling to 6-6-1 on the season and seeing their playoff odds take a significant hit.
The Dallas defense, which had vastly improved during the three-game winning streak, could do absolutely nothing to stop the Detroit offense, with Jared Goff completing 25 of 34 passes for 309 yards and a touchdown and Jahmyr Gibbs scoring three touchdowns to help the Lions improve to 8-5.
While the Cowboys' top-ranked offense tallied 417 total yards, a couple of ill-timed turnovers, a Jake Ferguson fumble and the first of Dak Prescott's two interceptions, proved to be the difference, as the Lions scored touchdowns after both.
With a win, the Cowboys would have seen their postseason probability odds jump from 19% to 36%. Instead, they've now seen their odds dip down to a measly 7%. Here's how the NFC standings shake out heading into the remainder of the Week 14 slate.
Standing | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chicago Bears | 9-3 | 74% |
2 | Los Angeles Rams | 9-3 | 95% |
3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8-4 | 96% |
4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-5 | 83% |
5 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-3 | 92% |
6 | Green Bay Packers | 8-3-1 | 88% |
7 | San Francisco 49ers | 9-4 | 91% |
8 | Detroit Lions | 8-5 | 54% |
9 | Carolina Panthers | 7-6 | 19% |
10 | Dallas Cowboys | 6-6-1 | 7% |
As you can see, the Cowboys are now three games behind in the win column to the San Francisco 49ers, who currently sit in the final wild-card slot at 9-4. And Dallas can't get any help there this week, as the Niners are on a bye.
A wild-card spot isn't technically out of reach just yet, but the best shot the Cowboys have at the playoffs is by winning the NFC East, which is also a long shot but at least a little more doable, as the division-leading Eagles are 8-4.
The most important thing for the Cowboys, of course, is that they have to win games. And they've got winnable matchups over the final four weeks, with remaining contests against the Minnesota Vikings (Week 15), Washington Commanders (Week 17), and New York Giants (Week 18), none of whom have more than four wins right now. The only team with a winning record they'll face is the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16.
Dallas will actually be rooting for LA this Monday night, as the Chargers host the Eagles, who've lost two straight. The Cowboys obviously need Philly to keep losing, but the Birds have plenty of winnable games themselves, as they still have both matchups with Washington left to play in Weeks 16 and 18, as well as a Week 15 matchup with the lowly Las Vegas Raiders.
However, there is the matchup with the Chargers and then a Week 17 battle with the Buffalo Bills. So, not all hope is lost just yet.
Still, though, if the Cowboys can win out to finish 10-6-1, they'll need the Eagles to drop three of their last five to finish 10-7. It's not out of the question, but it's a lot to ask. They'll now just sit back and hope that first loss comes on Monday night.