After the Dallas Cowboys dropped to 3-5-1 for the season with a pair of losses to the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals in the two games ahead of their much-needed Week 10 bye, the thought process among NFL oddsmakers (and pundits, fans, and, well, pretty much everybody) was that there was basically no chance for Brian Schottenheimer's squad to make the playoffs.
The Cowboys came out of their bye week, during which they actually got a little help, and kept themselves in the mix with a dominant 33-16 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. And things are now really interesting after Dallas got back to .500 this past Sunday in Week 12, improving to 5-5-1 with a historic 24-21 comeback victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.
With the win over Philly, the Cowboys' playoff probability odds at NFL.com had bumped up to 10% once all of Sunday's action played out. That's obviously not the most ideal number at this point in the season, but it's still far better than what it's been. However, with the San Francisco 49ers taking a 20-9 win over the Carolina Panthers to close out the Week 12 slate on Monday Night Football, the Cowboys' playoff odds took a slight hit, dropping down to 8%, which makes sense, given how the overall NFC playoff picture looks heading into Week 13.
- Los Angeles Rams (9-2, 1st NFC West)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-3, 1st NFC East)
- Chicago Bears (8-3, 1st NFC North)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5, 1st NFC South)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-3, 2nd NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (7-3-1, 2nd NFC North)
- San Francisco 49ers (8-4, 3rd NFC West)
- Detroit Lions (7-4, 3rd NFC North)
- Carolina Panthers (6-6, 2nd NFC South)
- Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1, 2nd NFC East)
- Atlanta Falcons (4-7, 3rd NFC South)
- Minnesota Vikings (4-7, 4th NFC North)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-8, 4th NFC West)
- Washington Commanders (3-8, 3rd NFC East)
- New Orleans Saints (2-9, 4th NFC South)
- New York Giants (2-10, 4th NFC East) -- Officially eliminated
Cowboys' playoff odds fall ever so slightly after Panthers lose to 49ers on MNF
As you can see, the Cowboys currently sit in the No. 10 position, and the reason they sit behind the Panthers, who are also at .500, is obviously because they took that 30-27 loss to Carolina back in Week 6.
Now, had the Panthers beaten the 49ers on Monday night, Dallas would still be sitting in the No. 10 position. But the No. 9 spot would have belonged to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as Carolina would have moved into first place in the NFC South.
The Cowboys might actually prefer to see the Bucs in the wild-card race and not the Panthers because of that head-to-head tiebreaker with Carolina, which they won't have with Tampa Bay, as the two clubs don't meet this season.
Dallas would have definitely preferred to see the Panthers get a win on Monday night, as the Cowboys would have obviously inched closer to the coveted No. 7 slot, which, had San Francisco lost, would have belonged to the Detroit Lions, who the Cowboys will face a week from Thursday to kick off Week 14.
Instead, however, Dallas continues to chase a 49ers team that has upcoming matchups in Week 13 against the three-win Cleveland Browns and in Week 15 against the one-win Tennessee Titans, with a Week 14 bye in between.
The Cowboys, of course, can't control the outcome of any other game and simply have to worry about taking care of their own business, starting with their high-profile Thanksgiving Day matchup this Thursday with the Kansas City Chiefs. It'll certainly be interesting to see how much their playoff odds rise if they can pull off another upset.