It feels more likely than not that George Pickens will be wearing a Dallas Cowboys uniform by the time September rolls around, but the same was said about Micah Parsons this time last year.
The Cowboys reportedly haven't started the negotiation process, but that's the status quo in Dallas. If history has taught us anything, it's that the ball will get rolling during the NFL Combine later this month.
Having said that, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport instilled some fear into Cowboys fans when he floated the possibility of Dallas tagging and trading Pickens if talks get messy.
That feels like a long shot, but nevertheless, Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram did some digging and came across a sobering revelation after speaking to an AFC scout.
"What do you think the Cowboys could get in a theoretical George Pickens trade? He's like 'Second-round pick at the best-case scenario with a Day 3 pick swap, but in reality you're probably looking at maybe a third and a fourth,'" Harris said on the Cross Chop podcast.
George Pickens' rumored trade market proves the Dallas Cowboys should just pay him
That's an unfortunate development for folks in the trade Pickens camp, but it's great news for the Cowboys, who should now put any trade talk to rest.
At the end of the day, Dallas should reject any trade offers that don't start with a second-round pick. That would be tempting given that they don't own a second this year after using it to acquire Quinnen Williams.
However, it’s hard to argue that any second-round pick would be half as impactful as Pickens is right now. Need proof? Just look at the Cowboys’ recent second-round picks. It's dreadful.
The term "bust" is thrown around loosely these days, but Luke Schoonmaker (2024), Sam Williams (2022), Kelvin Joseph (2021), and Trysten Hill (2019) all meet the criteria.
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And whoever calls offering a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick should be laughed off the phone. What is Dallas going to do with those? Take a linebacker and a running back? No thanks. Just pay the top 10 wide receiver who wants to re-sign, is a perfect match with Dak Prescott, and has a great relationship with CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys are not in a position to flip stars for draft capital. This past season functioned as a reset after the Micah Parsons trade and the unsuccessful Matt Eberlfus hire, but the Joneses have signaled that they intend to compete in 2026.
Why else would they trade for Williams? Now, they're going to turn around and trade Pickens? It wouldn't add up.
This would be a different conversation if Pickens could fetch a first-round pick. But that outcome isn't rooted in reality.
Harris' revelation is sobering, but it could prove beneficial as long as it steers Dallas in the direction of signing Pickens.