Despite having the league's worst scoring defense in the 2025 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys still managed to win seven games and at least set the stage for improvement heading into 2026. With the team sporting a top-10 scoring offense, it could not have been more obvious what needed to be improved.
And while nothing is guaranteed, the personnel changes Dallas made on defense, including switching coordinators, do seem to have put this unit on the brink of radically improving in 2026, a year where the NFC East appears to be wide open.
With that said, the Cowboys will almost certainly have to hit double-digit wins to not only win the division but also make the playoffs, and these four games could be an ideal chance to rack up the win total.
How many guaranteed wins do the Dallas Cowboys have on their 2026 schedule?
Week 2 vs. Washington Commanders
Not only did the Washington Commanders win seven fewer games from 2024 into 2025, but the team is still facing some major concerns even as 2026 is set to begin.
Washington is now without Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and the center position has been a major question mark all offseason. Sure, they managed to sign Stefon Diggs and got active in free agency, but when you compare this roster to Dallas', there isn't a clear advantage for the Commanders.
The Cowboys host them in Week 2, and with the offensive line dysfunction, the revamped Cowboys defense should be able to flex its newly found pass-rush prowess. Not only that, but Dallas would also come into this game with an advantage at quarterback, as Dak Prescott owns a 47-21-1 record at home with a stellar 103.5 passer rating (via Pro Football Reference).
Commanders' QB Jayden Daniels owns a 6-6 record away from home for reference. Right now, the Cowboys are simply a better, more talented team, so with this matchup being early in the season, this should hold and lead to a Dallas victory.
Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arguably the worst team in the NFL, the Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8. While the Cardinals do sport some nice talent on offense, the rest of the roster is questionable at best, and with Arizona also not having the QB firepower to match well with Dallas, this game could get out of hand quickly.
Yes, Arizona beat Dallas in their house in 2025, but the defensive shift from then until now is significant, so using that game to argue against the Cowboys falls short. Arizona might struggle to win three games this year, and with Dallas clearly being far from a bad team, this should be an easy win.
Week 11 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans are right in the middle of a rebuild and are absolutely hoping that Cam Ward takes a sizeable step forward in year two. While that can indeed happen, Ward and the Titans are far from a finished product.
The Titans are only in year two of the Mike Borgoni era. The Titans' general manager has made some nice moves thus far, but with the offensive line being a massive question mark and the defense being far from complete, this rebuild is going to take another year or two.
And while Titans' head coach Robert Saleh could have this new-look defense playing better than they did last year, Tennessee's offense doesn't have the personnel to get into a shootout with the Cowboys if that's what it took.
Week 11 should be another 'guaranteed' victory.
Week 17 vs. New York Giants
The New York Giants are an interesting team this year. With the hiring of John Harbaugh, the Giants finally seem to have a legitimate head coach to at least bring some form of stability to the franchise that has missed it for years.
They also have a QB in Jaxson Dart who racked up 24 total touchdowns in just 14 games as a rookie in 2025. Despite that, the Giants seem to have this cloud of dyfuction hovering over their head as 2026 approaches.
And while it's extremely reasonable to be high on Dart and this team taking a step forward, it's clear that the Giants' ceiling is still limited this year. The roster is fine, and it does usually take a couple of seasons for a team to really hit their stride, as we saw with the 2025 Cowboys.
While divisional games can be tough, and the Cowboys could absolutely lose to the Giants once in 2026, taking care of business at home should be a lock as long as Dallas still has something to play for.
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