It wasn't pretty, but the Dallas Cowboys came away from Indianapolis with a 27-23 victory over the hapless Colts on Sunday. This week, they will have to play a near-flawless game with Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner coming to town.
The 49ers lead the tough NFC West at 7-1 and currently have the best point differential in the conference (+79). They do it with a balanced offense and a stingy defense that has allowed only 156 points. That's the third-best total in the NFL through 10 weeks.
If the Cowboys want to pull off the upset, there are a handful of things they must do to be competitive with what is one of the best teams in football. The 49ers enter the contest as 4.5-point favorites on the road.
3 keys for the Cowboys to possibly upset the 49ers in Week 10
1. Limit Cristian McCaffrey's yards after contact
McCaffrey, 30, is in his 10th season and remains one of the league's most versatile and efficient backs. He is just as difficult to contain as a pass-catching back as he is on the straight handoff and pitch.
He has 457 yards rushing on 102 carries and another 270 yards through the air on 36 receptions and trails only George Kittle in catches, who has 38. He does most of his damage after initial contact with his elite balance.
Even though the 49ers have adopted a snap count to manage his workload, McCaffrey is still capable of taking over a game. They use him on a mix of outside zone, split zone, and power-load gap schemes. Coach Kyle Shanahan wants to get the shifty runner into areas where he only has to beat one defender to make an explosive play.
McCaffrey accounts for 69% of the backfield's third-down opportunities and leads them in two-minute drills, end-of-half, and end-of-game scripts. They will use him in play action to set up Purdy for downfield strikes, but he is always the first check-down option if a play is well covered.
He will get a minimum of 20 touches on Sunday, and if the Cowboys don't bring him down in space (particularly in the flat on the check-down), he will not only move the chains but deliver chunk plays with his combination of high-end speed and shiftiness.
2. Get Brock Purdy off schedule in the pocket
Purdy will not hesitate to scramble out of the pocket if he feels pressure. He has an intuitive feel for nearby rushers and will move off his spot and throw off-platform if necessary. Still, he is a technically sound dropback passer by trade who does his best work delivering on timing routes both between the hashes and to the boundaries.
The Cowboys have to be aggressive on the edges, but be aware of Purdy's ability to step up in the pocket with his eyes downfield. He could still have success throwing when moved off his spot, but if you don't pressure him and allow him to establish timing with Kittle, CMC, and wideouts Jayden Watkins and DeMarcus Robinson, he will carve you up.
Watkins and Robinson are seeing most of the WR reps, with Mike Evans dealing with Achilles tendonitis and rookie Deshaun Stribling on IR with an ankle injury.
Purdy's first two reads will typically be Kittle and McCaffrey, but he is coming off a 38-17 bludgeoning of the Raiders in which he connected with Watkins for 86 yards and a TD on 4 catches. He likes to work the middle of the field, but can hurt defenses anywhere if he is given time to throw from the pocket.
3. Attack the few weaknesses that the Niners defense has
The 49ers are a smashmouth group on defense with virtually no weaknesses. They rank third in the NFL in total yards allowed at 292 yards per game and are solid against both the run and the pass.
If they have a weakness, it is at cornerback, where they are currently without starters Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green, who leads the team in picks. Nickel corner Upton Stout is also iffy for the game Sunday with a shoulder injury.
CeeDee Lamb, Ryan Flournoy and George Pickens, who will play, have to get separation and win in zone coverage. The Niners use zone coverage on almost 85% of their defensive pass snaps. The Cowboys' best chance to pull off the upset is to manufacture explosive plays, as the Niners don't typically give up long drives.
San Francisco has also been somewhat susceptible to dump-down passes to running backs, allowing 6.8 passes per game to running backs, the highest mark in the league.
The Cowboys aren't a great screen team and don't use Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson often as pass-catchers, but Brian Schottenheimer should look for more ways to get his backs touches other than handing it off because there won't be much room to run between the tackles.
Add us as a preferred source on Google