NFL breaks down Cowboys’ win probability in 3 crucial 2022 matchups

It’s NFL schedule release day and everyone is talking about who is facing who and who has the toughest schedule. Although the Dallas Cowboys are currently tied for the easiest strength of schedule with NFC rival Washington Commanders, they certainly have some critical matchups to get through throughout the year.

Ahead of the schedule release, we already knew who the Cowboys’ home and road opponents would be. To be fair, there should be some walks in the park. Taking on the Commanders, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Detroit Lions should be pretty easy. We’d like to think facing the Eagles and Giants will also be simple, but it will be interesting to see how impressive newcomers like Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jordan Davis, and A.J. Brown affect those NFC East teams in 2022.

Despite the low opponent win percentage, the Cowboys will still have some pretty difficult games on their 2022 schedule. Ahead of the schedule release, NFL analytics expert Cynthia Frelund did an in-depth look at all 32 teams’ win probabilities. Frelund broke down the win probability for each franchise’s three “must-watch” matchups in 2022.

For the Cowboys, the analytics expert took a look at the probabilities for games against the Packers, Bengals, and Eagles.

NFL’s Cynthia Frelund reveals the Cowboys’ win probability for their top 3 matchups on the 2022 schedule

For starters, Frelund is right. These will certainly be must-watch games given Dallas has just around a 50% chance to win each of these games. Let’s take a look:

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers – Win Probability 49.6%:  This matchup comes with a lot of intense history. Two storied franchises in the NFC will look to boost their playoff chances against each other in Week 10. To be honest, the fact that Frelund believes the Cowboys have almost a 50% chance to win a game in the frozen tundra against one of the best quarterbacks in the league is a good sign in my book. A game at Lambeau for any team is always a challenge. Dallas certainly has more of a chance given the fact that Aaron Rodgers no longer has Davante Adams and there will be an extra incentive for head coach Mike McCarthy to win in his first trip back to Green Bay after being fired by the team.

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals – Win Probability 49.2%: The Bengals have the advantage here in a few ways. The team is coming off a huge turnaround and a Super Bowl appearance in 2021. Now, they also have some insight into the Cowboys with the recent addition of La’el Collins. Collins was a post-June 1 cut by Dallas and the Bengals picked him up almost immediately. The offensive line was a big struggle for Cincy in 2021 and Collins looks to help in that department. The Cowboys do have the home advantage in this matchup, which could help the cause.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles – Win Probability 50.3%: This one is interesting. Last year, the win probability for America’s Team was likely way higher. Injuries, COVID issues, and other elements hurt Philly throughout the season. Now, with some concerning additions to the roster (Jordan Davis, A.J. Brown, Nakobe Dean, etc), this may not be the easiest matchup. Dallas easily swept the division in 2021 and that may not be the case in 2022. There are rumors that one of the two matchups will take place on Christmas Eve, which will be quite the present for fans of this rivalry.

How likely do you think the Cowboys are to win these games and which one are you most excited for?