Can the Dallas Cowboys catch Tampa Bay in a Super Bowl slump?

The time has come for the Dallas Cowboys to finally play a real football game when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday, September 9th, 2021. From injuries to Dak Prescott and Covid issues that will apparently keep All-Pro guard Zack Martin from participating in Thursday’s contest, the deck appears to be stacked against the Dallas Cowboys.

I haven’t even talked about how well Tampa Bay’s offseason went. The team is bringing back all 22 starters from their Super Bowl run last season. I wanted to focus on Tom Brady as he is the single biggest factor on why the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl last season.

The previous year, Tampa Bay missed the playoffs when they were led by first overall pick Jameis Winston. Tampa largely had the same starting roster with Winston as they did with Brady so he is my focal point.

The Dallas Cowboys will be in for a huge challenge against Tom Brady

This will also be Tom Brady’s fifth time opening up the NFL season which of course will extend another one of his records. Tom himself has been efficient on opening night and I would expect that to continue. Brady’s first opening night was on September 9th, 2004 against the Indianapolis Colts. NFL fans were treated to a back and forth battle against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

Tom Brady went 26-38 for 335 passing yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. The Brady-led Patriots won the back and forth contest 27-24 on a missed Mike Vanderjagt field goal.

The following year, the Patriots once again opened the season as back-to-back champions which is the only one of Brady’s career.  They hosted the Oakland Raiders who had acquired Randy Moss in the offseason. The Raiders were no match for New England as the Patriots won 30-20.

Tom Brady went 24-38 for 306 yards and threw for two touchdowns. It would be ten years before we would see Tom Brady in an NFL primetime opener. The Pittsburgh Steelers led by Ben Roethlisberger would travel to New England on September 10th, 2015.

Tom Brady would be 25-32 for 288 yards but threw four touchdown passes en route to a 28-21 victory for the Patriots. Lastly, the New England Patriots would host the Alex Smith-led Kansas City Chiefs on September 7th, 2017. Tom Brady would go 16-36 for 267 yards but would fail to record a touchdown pass. The Kansas City Chiefs would shock the Patriots by winning the game 42-27.

So what have we learned about Tom Brady on opening night? First Brady has averaged 36 passing attempts in his four opening night games. He also averages 22.75 completions in those contests. He averages 2.25 touchdown passes on opening night but he has only thrown one interception in those four games combined.

I always thought that the Patriots would run the ball on opening night to protect Brady and allow him to get into a rhythm. I found out that is exactly the opposite. Brady’s three opening wins saw his team rush for less than 100 yards total.

That means Brady is the one who is getting the rest of his teammates up to par. In fact, the only time a Tom Brady-led team on opening night rushed for over 100 yards, they lost. His teams have won the turnover battle in every opening night game also which is also something to watch.

Brady’s efficiency on opening night should produce a statline somewhere along the lines of 23-36 for 299 yards and 2 touchdown passes. That is his average from his previous four games but is that enough to get the Dallas Cowboys a victory?