Why the Dallas Cowboys made the right call on fourth down

Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys made several questionable calls last Sunday night. Going for it on fourth down was not one of them.

No doubt about it, the Mike McCarthy era got off to a rough start for the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. After dropping a very winnable game against the Los Angeles Rams in their new stadium, fan frustration is understandable.

Throughout the first half quarterback, Jared Goff and the Rams were able to move the ball seemingly at will. L.A. punished the Cowboys on screen passes all game long and whenever they really needed to make a play, Rams’ head coach Sean McVay was able to dial-up whatever the team needed.

Meanwhile, the Cowboy’s offensive showed potential, but as the game wore on the play calling for Dallas became incredibly conservative. Instead of the motion heavy, play-action air attack that most fans dreamed of seeing quarterback Dak Prescott implement, the team opted to run for it on first down and made a series of puzzling play calls. On a night filled with bad calls, Dallas did get at least one right.

With 11:36 left in the fourth quarter of Sunday night’s game and the Cowboys down 20-17, Dallas faced a fourth and three from the Rams’ 11-yard line. Instead of kicking the chip shot field goal to tie the game, McCarthy got aggressive and went for it.

Dak dropped back and fired to rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb who was running a crossing route. He caught it and was popped by Rams cornerback Jordan Fuller. The end result was a Lamb reception for a two-yard gain and a turnover on downs. Regardless of the outcome, going for it on fourth down was absolutely the correct call.

Yes, you read that correctly, going for it on fourth down was the right decision. There are a lot of things you can and should criticize about the Cowboys play calling Sunday night. The decision to go for it late in the game trailing by three is not one of them.

For years stat-heads and analytics have preached the virtues of going for it on fourth down, saying that the risk for a turnover on downs is more than worth the potential reward of picking up the first and a possible touchdown. This is for good reason, too. Going for it on fourth down is, generally speaking, the right decision and helps increase a team’s EPA (expected points added) when done in the right situation.

The New York Times even has a “fourth down bot” that helps illustrate how and when teams should go for it. At this point, it’s well known that in the modern NFL the risk of getting six points far outweighs the potential for three. Especially when your kicker already missed a kick earlier that night.

Throughout his tenure as head coach in Dallas, fans relentlessly criticized Jason Garett for playing everything extremely conservative. He was, with a few notable exceptions, averse to taking big risks and playing games aggressively. He much preferred taking sure points and controlling the play clock. But guess what? The fans were right to criticize him for it. Time after time Garett’s conservative offense cost the Cowboys football games.

The Cowboys defense made some adjustments in the second half. They picked off Goff and forced a punt on the two preceding Rams’ drives to the Cowboys’ fourth-down attempt. With the ball on the 11-yard line, McCarthy had confidence in the defense to make a stop if they didn’t pick up the first. For the record, the defense forced a punt on the Rams’ final two drives after the turnover on downs, the Cowboys also had two more possessions of their own that they failed to score on.

The play call Sunday night was also fine. CeeDee ran a crossing route and beat the man assigned to him. Fuller just made a great play reading the route and making a tackle in open space. If there is something to be critical of, it’s that Lamb should have run his route about a yard deeper. With COVID-19, this offseason has been unlike any other.

There were no traditional OTAs, rookie minicamp, or pre-season games. Rookies should be given the benefit of the doubt as they adjust to the NFL. That said, knowing where the first down marker is, is a fundamental part of the game. But, the awareness and speed of an NFL game isn’t something a rookie is born with. I’d expect Lamb to continue to develop as an NFL route runner.

The far bigger issue was deciding to run the ball on third and six on the previous play. Even if Ezekiel Elliott is running the football in that situation, it’ a low percentage play where you still prepare to have to run another play on fourth and short. It’s the kind of infuriating play call that evokes more than a few memories from the Garrett era. It’s easy to see why the Cowboys thought of it as a four-down situation, but wasting a play on a third-down rush is still inexcusable.

Dallas suffered a tough loss in Los Angeles to start the season, there is no doubt about it. However, in a game full of questionable calls, the Dallas Cowboys did get one right, even if it didn’t pan out the way they hoped it would.