Dallas Cowboys: 2020 projections for the running backs

How will the Dallas Cowboys distribute the workload between a superstar and an up-and-comer at the running back spot in 2020?

Imagine for a moment possessing such an offensive weapon that said player finishes in the top five in all three major statistical categories and that season considered to be a “down” year. Such is the life of a Dallas Cowboys fan.

After the 2019 season commenced, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott finished second in rushing attempts, fourth in rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns. He also contributed in the passing game with 54 receptions for 420 yards and another two scores.

For some reason, however, everyone with Twitter fingers or a microphone can’t wait to tell you how Zeke’s already lost a step. They love to opine on how the Dallas Cowboys were suckers for giving Elliott a six-year deal worth $90 million.

The talking heads, specifically an anonymous NFL coach, thinks Elliott is already in decline. Zeke responded via Twitter to a recent ESPN article where an unnamed offensive coach apparently questioned Elliott’s strength and ability to create breakout runs.

The facts are that people will always like to talk. Whether or not what comes out of their mouths is worth hearing or not, some people just love the sound of their own voice.

The facts are that Elliott sat out the entire training camp which did not help how he “looked” at times. There is also the fact that the Dallas Cowboys drafted a viable backup who helped in reducing wear and tear off of star running back.

Despite all of that, seven times Elliott eclipsed 100+ yards on the ground. Only once did he need more than 25 carries to do so and he still averaged 4.5 yards per attempt.

So how will that translate into 2020? Will we see a “revenge tour” from Elliott? Will second-year back Tony Pollard have a more active role in the offense? Let’s take a look at the 2020 projections for both Dallas Cowboys rushers.

To determine how 2020 could look, it helps to factor in the change at the head coaching position. Most people would assume that Mike McCarthy has more of a pass-happy philosophy given that he came from an offense that possessed Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

A deeper dive into the Packers running game under McCarthy shows that were actually in the middle of the pack when it came to rushing attempts. From 2008-2016, minus the 2013 season in which Rodgers missed significant time, Green Bay finished between thirteenth and sixteenth in attempts five times.

All of that was without anyone near the caliber of Ezekiel Elliott to lean on. During that time span, Green Bay averaged 280 rushing attempts per season. In four seasons in Dallas, Elliott has averaged 292 attempts per season. That number is low given that he missed six games due to suspension in 2017.

It is fair to assume that with the league trending more towards passing, along with the change in coaching philosophy and Pollard’s presence that 2020 could be the first time Elliott does not get 300+ attempts in a full season. With that in mind, I’m putting Elliott’s carries at 290 in 2020.

As for Pollard, I think you might see a slight uptick in his touches. Last season, he was given 86 attempts on the ground. A small boost of two more per game would put him at 118 for the season.

Regarding the yardage for both, I actually believe that a little less wear and tear on Elliott could mean more big runs. I could easily see Zeke going back to almost five yards per rush which would put Elliott at 1,421 yards in 2020.

As for Pollard, I think the 5.3 yards per attempt he put up last year is a good barometer for this season. We’ll assume a very small drop to 5.1 giving Pollard 602 yards in 2020.

As it pertains to touchdowns, this is another area where you will likely see a small drop in production for Elliott and a small boost for Pollard. I see the two splitting 15 total touchdowns on the ground with 11 for Zeke and four for Pollard.

Lastly, we must look at what these two will provide in the passing game. I feel the trend is going to continue here with Elliott getting fewer looks and Pollard receiving more. We’ll put Elliott at 37 receptions for 385 yards and two touchdowns and Pollard at 23 receptions for 196 yards and two touchdowns as well.

For a second-year guy who is largely a backup, 118 rushes for 602 yards and four touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at for Pollard. Adding the 23 catches, 196 yards and two scores receiving will just solidify his spot as a secret weapon in a potent Dallas Cowboys offense.

The final numbers for Elliott, meanwhile, will go a long way in putting his name back in the mix as the best back in the league. Carrying the ball 290 times for 1,421 yards and 11 touchdowns with another 37/385/2 line in the passing game will have atop the list of elite running backs in the NFL.