Dallas Cowboys: 2020 projections for starting quarterback Dak Prescott

Can Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott improve under a new coaching staff?

The 2020 NFL season is already shaping up to be an interesting one for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Coaching changes, contractual questions, and the perennial hype that goes with the position, and this team all surrounds the signal-caller. Oh, and by the way, no one is 100% sure there will even be a season.

How will all of this affect the fifth-year starter? That remains to be seen, much like whether or not he will be playing the season on the franchise tag or with a new mega-deal in place. None of this, however, stops me from giving it my best shot to project Prescott’s 2020 statistical output.

Before we analyze what the season could look like for Prescott, we would be remiss to not discuss all of the factors surrounding him which will invariably have something to do with his performance. The first and biggest factor comes with the change at the head coach.

Maybe Mike McCarthy was not at the top of your wish list when the news broke that the Dallas Cowboys were finally moving on from Jason Garrett. Regardless, he is a huge upgrade over his predecessor.

McCarthy has been the guy behind some of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. Joe Montana, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers all had the tutelage of McCarthy for parts of their careers. This should bode well for Prescott’s continued maturation. Retaining last year’s offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore as well as moving former tight ends coach Doug Nussmeier back to quarterback coach should help maintain a sense of normalcy for Dak.

McCarthy is a proven winner who has ran some high-powered offenses during his time in the NFL. In eight of the eleven seasons that he was pulling double duty as both head coach and play-caller, McCarthy’s Packers finished in the top 10 in points scored. Nine times, they finished in the top ten in yards gained.

Prescott should also find some solace in his contract situation if nothing else changes on that front. Last season, he was essentially playing on a one-year deal, handling the day-to-day business of the starting quarterback, all while having the occasional contract negotiation. Things went just fine as Prescott had the best season (statistically) he has had in his short but solid career.

Prescott has also shown he has the perfect demeanor to handle being the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. His career started replacing a legend and fan favorite. All he did was win the most games of any quarterback in the team’s illustrious history.

Prescott has had to manage a reshuffling of his receiver group, a suspension of his starting running back, and the loud voices of fans that are never satisfied. All he has done is continue to grow into one of the league’s brightest young stars and its most demanding position. It’s clear that he’s capable of dealing with any environmental difficulties and perform well on the field.

So, how will that translate to the field in 2020? I believe you’re going to see Dak Prescott’s best season yet.

One thing that I do not believe you will see, however, is the trend of Prescott’s attempts going up each season. Last year, Prescott threw the ball 596 times. For a frame of reference, in the eight seasons that McCarthy had Aaron Rodgers as his starting quarterback for a full season, Rodgers only threw that much in one season.

On average, Rodgers had 540 pass attempts during that time. Given that league has fully progressed into a pass-happy league, let’s put Prescott’s 2020 pass attempts at 565. Let us also assume that Prescott’s completion percentage stays the same as last year as his 65.1 is EXACTLY what Rodgers averaged from 2008-2016. That will give Prescott 368 completions in 2020.

With those numbers in place, it’s reasonable to assume that Prescott’s yardage will also take a slight hit. With approximately 40 fewer attempts and 20 fewer completions, last year’s 4,900 yards will be difficult to duplicate. A talented trio of receivers, however, will likely keep that number above 4,500 yards so let’s set the passing yardage for Dak at 4,710 this coming year.

Now, earlier I said that I believe you’ll see Prescott’s best season, and here’s where you are thinking “but these numbers are worse than last year.” That is correct. The numbers that will get better are the ones that truly matter.

Last year, Prescott threw for a career-best 30 touchdowns. Rodgers averaged 35 from 2008-2016. I think that number is easily doable for Dak with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb all threatening the perimeter of opposing defenses. Let’s set the season total at 36.

Prescott also seems to have his best years in even-numbered season, especially as it pertains to his interception totals. In 2016, he threw just four picks. In 2018, he doubled that number but eight is still an amazing job at protecting the football. Eight also was Rodgers’ average during the same time we have been using as a barometer. I predict that Dak’s number is somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 seasons, putting his interceptions at nine.

At the end of the day, 368 completions for 565 attempts for 4,710 yards with 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions would give Prescott a passer rating of 105.7. That rating would be a career-best.

I also believe you might see Prescott used a little more in run-pass option situations meaning you’ll see an uptick in his rushing yardage. 65 rushes for 340 yards and four touchdowns sounds about right meaning Prescott, alone, will be responsible for over 5,000 yards of offense with 40 total touchdowns.

If he plays the entire 2020 season on the franchise tag, you best believe Dak Prescott will take these 2020 numbers straight to the bank in 2021.