The definitive guide why Dak Prescott is not a franchise quarterback

The Most Defining Metric to Identify a Franchise Quarterback

How are franchise quarterbacks identified when fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive metrics are shown to be an unreliable metric? There is a variant of the metric that reveals a quarterback’s ability to truly elevate when the pressure is at its greatest.

This metric is not yet an official stat charted by the NFL. The metric charts the percentage of times a quarterback is successful in tying or taking the lead within the last two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The metric does not factor whether the team wins or loses as a quarterback can’t be faulted for the defense giving up a subsequent score. The metric only considers what happens in the fourth quarter and does not include overtime results. This metric truly identifies quarterbacks who elevate their team when it matters most – the two-minute efficiency rating (2ER).

With no data publicly available for this metric, I charted each game for three quarterbacks over the last four years: Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady. I picked Mahomes and Brady for my comparison since it cannot be disputed that they are franchise quarterbacks with each winning the Super Bowl in the last two years.

Over the past four years, Brady has had eight opportunities to take the lead within the last two minutes of the fourth quarter. He has been successful four times (bold) for a 50 percent 2ER.

• 2016 – Seahawks – down by seven – turnover on downs at SEA 1 yard line at 0:11
• 2016 – Jets – down by one – touchdown at 1:57
• 2017 – Texans – down by five – touchdown and two pt convert at 0:23
• 2017 – Steelers – down by five – touchdown at 0:56
• 2018 – Chiefs – tied – field goal at 0:00
• 2018 – Steelers – down by seven – turnover on downs at PIT 21 at 0:14
• 2019 – Chiefs – down by seven – turnover on downs at KC 5 at 1:06
• 2019 – Dolphins – down by three – received ball at NE 25 at 0:24

Mahomes has only had seven opportunities in his 31 starts. But he has made the most of them with four successful tries (bold) in the seven opportunities for a 57 percent 2ER.

• 2017 – Broncos – tied – field goal at 0:00
• 2018 – Broncos – down by three – touchdown at 1:39
• 2018 – Rams – down by three – interception at 0:13
• 2018 – Ravens – down by seven – touchdown at 0:43 – won game in OT
• 2018 – Ravens – tied – missed field goal at 0:00 – won game in OT
• 2019 – Lions – down by three – touchdown at 0:20
• 2019 – Titans – down by three- blocked field goal at 0:00