Are the Cowboys a safe bet against the Bills on Thanksgiving?

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Bills vs. Cowboys Odds

  • Odds: Cowboys -7
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out updated NFL spreads and over/unders here.

Public bettors are willing to fade America’s Team on Thanksgiving, with more than 60% of spread tickets and money coming in on the Buffalo Bills. But is there any value on the Dallas Cowboys (and/or the over/under)?

Our experts analyze every angle of this Thanksgiving Day matchup, featuring a staff picks and more.

Bills-Cowboys Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bills

The Bills are on top of their game as their statuses are already out for Thursday. Robert Foster (hamstring) and center Mitch Morse (hand) are listed as questionable, while right tackle Ty Nsekhe (ankle) has been ruled out.

The Cowboys are in decent shape, but are expected to be without linebacker Leighton Vander Esch as he continues to be battle an on-going neck issue. Offensive lineman La’el Collins (knee/back), Zack Martin (back/ankle/elbow) and Connor Williams (knee) have been limited in practice all week, but that’s typical for them. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys Rush Offense vs. Bills Rush Defense

Don’t be fooled by the Bills’ 8-3 record — they’ve compiled that fast start thanks to one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.

In fact, the Bills have inexplicably got to eight wins through 10 games with a strength of victory of just .239! That means the combined winning percentage of the teams they’ve defeated is less than 25%. And the only reason that’s not the lowest in the AFC is because the Bengals haven’t won a game yet so they don’t have a SOV!

While the Bills do have an outstanding pass defense led by a lockdown corner (Tre’Davious White) and two outstanding safeties (Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde) on the backend, they remain very vulnerable against the run. Despite the soft schedule, they’ve still allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks outside the top 20 and also ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the run.

Well, that spells bad news against a Cowboys offense that averages 4.6 yards per rush and ranks third overall in rush offense DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys rank inside the top three in both passing and rushing DVOA.

Once Ezekiel Elliott gets going, it should open up the passing attack through play action.

It all starts up front with the dominant Dallas offensive line, which ranks second in line yards, per Football Outsiders. Buffalo’s defensive front is about mid-pack in that same category, but what’s even more troubling is the Bills’ rank of 30th in both second level and open field. That means that not only should the Cowboys keep the chains moving on short yardage situations, but they should have plenty of chunk runs as well against a very weak Bills run defense up the middle in front of their safeties.

Expect a huge day from Zeke on the ground as well as Dak Prescott as needed when nothing opens up through the air. The Cowboys aren’t necessarily famous for their strategic run vs. pass play-calling splits as they’ve run the ball in less-than-ideal spots this season but that may actually work in their favor this week. Stuckey

Expert Picks

Travis Reed: Under 47

The Bills defense is very good, but it may be overshadowed by the Patriots dominate defense in their own division. The under is 8-3 in Bills games this season, going under by an average of 4.1 points. Two of the three games that went over the total were when the Bills played the laughably bad Dolphins defense.

This line opened at 45, and with 76% of the money on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), it’s moved up to 47. I’m happy to buy back on this line movement and take the under.

The Cowboys offensive metrics scream that they’re one of the best scoring teams in the league, but as long as Jason Garrett is the head coach, they’ll continue to leave points on the field due to poor decisions. I like the under all the way down to 44.5 points.