Ezekiel Elliott is a risky investment: But is Zeke worth it?

With a potential holdout on the table, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is looking for a contract extension. But is the risk worth it?

It’s hard to argue against the fact Ezekiel Elliott is the top running back in the NFL right now. The Dallas Cowboys‘ fourth-year back has led the league in rushing yardage twice in his first three seasons as a professional.

Elliott is undoubtedly the offensive focal point for America’s Team, helping to lead the franchise to three straight winning seasons and two playoff berths. Earlier this year, Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones called the 23-year old running back the straw that stirs our drink.

This week, rumors emerged that Elliott was privately considering a holdout in order to secure himself a contract extension. As a former first-round selection in 2016, Zeke has two more years left on his rookie deal. That includes a fifth-year option that Dallas picked up for 2020 at a cost of $9.09 million.

As the league’s top running back, Elliott’s salary demands are expected to make him the highest-paid player at his position. Currently, that honor is held by the Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley, who signed a four-year, $60 million contract extension with $45 million guaranteed last year. Elliott’s projected new deal is expected to exceed Gurley’s $14.3 million per season average.

Complicating matters is the fact Elliott comes with major off-the-field concerns. The NFL recently announced it would not punish the Cowboys’ running back for a recent incident in Vegas in which a security guard is now seeking to have Elliott charged with battery. In 2017, Elliott was suspended for six games by the NFL for violating its personal conduct policy stemming from domestic violence accusations.

Despite Elliott’s missteps, it appears he’s trying his best to leverage himself into a new deal. And the Cowboys, whose team success is so dependent on a consistent rushing attack, may be forced to give in to his demands.

Here’s what Josh Hermsmeyer recently wrote for fivethirtyeight.com, about Elliott not being worth the money he wants.

"“The primary reason an investment in an overpriced, risky asset is truly awful is because it can impact play calling in the worst possible way. In an attempt to justify the overspend at the position, a team may be encouraged to run more and pass less. It’s the worst kind of curse, and the Cowboys seem eager to cast the hex on themselves.”"

There is little doubt that Elliott is a risky investment. Especially with a suspected price tag north of $14.3 million per season. But Elliott is also the straw that stirs the Cowboys’ drink. Generational running backs, who post over 4,000 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns in three years, are obviously rare finds. And certainly, Zeke deserves to be paid well.

In the end, the Dallas Cowboys might have no choice but to pay Ezekiel Elliott despite how it could damage the team’s financial future. But the Cowboys also need to protect themselves contractually if Elliott’s off-the-field issues continue to plague his on-field availability.