Why 2019 is Byron Jones last season with the Dallas Cowboys

The NFL has had a salary cap since 1994 forcing teams to make hard player decisions. This season is likely Byron Jones last with the Dallas Cowboys.

On March 19, 2013, former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo signed a six-year contract averaging $18 million per season. On July 15, 2015, former wide receiver Dez Bryant signed a contract extension averaging $14 million for five years. Cowboys fans should look to these deals as clues for the future.

The Cowboys recently signed defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence to a rich contract that averages $21 million per year over five years. His average annual salary, with the 2019 salary cap set at $188.2 million, is 11.2 percent of this coming year’s cap.

On October 27, 2009, the Cowboys signed former linebacker DeMarcus Ware on a six-year extension averaging $13 million per season. The 2010 season was an uncapped year with the 2011 salary cap set at $120 million and the 2009 season set at $123 million. Ware’s contract was 10.8 percent or 10.6 percent of the cap depending on which year you pick.

With Romo and Bryant’s contracts representing 14.6 percent and 9.8 percent of the signed year salary cap, current quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver Amari Cooper would be in line for $27.5 million and $18.4 million average per year deals if they receive the same cap percentage as their position peers. If this happens, I think the Cowboys will have too many salary cap resources tied up in too few players.

The past eight Super Bowl winning teams have averaged 4.25 players with salary cap hits greater than five percent.

• 2018 – New England Patriots: Four
• 2017 – Philadelphia Eagles: Four
• 2016 – New England Patriots: Two
• 2015 – Denver Broncos: Six
• 2014 – New England Patriots: Three
• 2013 – Seattle Seahawks: Five
• 2012 – Baltimore Ravens: Five
• 2011 – New York Giants: Five

Assuming Prescott signs his deal this offseason, the Cowboys will have eight players with salary cap hits greater than five percent: offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Travis Frederick and La’el Collins, wide receiver Amari Cooper and defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Tyrone Crawford. This requires the Cowboys to find quality depth on the cheap.

Fortunately for Dallas, they have several players playing starring roles still on rookie deals: running back Ezekiel Elliott, corner back Byron Jones and linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. Maybe this allows the front office to go top-heavy this year but is it sustainable for the future?

They say hindsight is 2020. With hindsight, you can see with clarity the decisions you should have changed. Before Lawrence signed his contract, the Cowboys had about $106 million in cap space for the 2020 season.

With a signed deal for Lawrence and projected deals for Prescott, Cooper, Jones and Elliott, the Cowboys will consume by my estimation 90 percent of their available 2020 cap space. Of course, Dallas can play with future cap space by structuring the deals with back loaded salary and higher signing bonus to defer the cap hits but there is only so much you can do before the salary cap deferment will catch up and restrict roster flexibility.

Linebacker Jaylon Smith will be a restricted free agent in 2020. Corner Anthony Brown and offensive tackle La’el Collins will be free agents who the Cowboys won’t be able to afford to resign next offseason. Safeties Jeff Heath, George Iloka and Kavon Frazier, defensive end Robert Quinn and wide receiver Randall Cobb will also be unrestricted free agents in 2020.

This will leave a lot of holes to fill on the 2020 roster. The Cowboys front office needs to consider the impact of signing four players to top of the market contracts.

This is why I think Byron Jones will not be re-signed. And I think Dallas will try to re-sign Anthony Brown instead. Jones and Collins departure should set the Cowboys up with two third round compensatory picks. If Quinn and Cobb have good years, it is conceivable that Dallas could receive four compensatory picks in the top four rounds in 2021.

Roster building is not a year to year task but rather a continuum where decisions made today will have consequences felt for years to come. It’s great that DeMarcus Lawrence is signed. And the Dallas Cowboys plan to reward their other stars. But they need to exercise caution as recent Super Bowl winners have shown that it takes a team of 53 to win the Lombardi Trophy. Let’s hope Dallas will have enough money left to field a roster on game day.