Dallas Cowboys: DeMarcus Lawrence’s play unlikely to exceed his contract

The Dallas Cowboys offseason biggest need is to fix their defensive line and their best lineman is unhappy with his contract. This needs to be resolved soon.

Dallas Cowboys Director of Player Personnel Stephen Jones revealed earlier this week that contract negotiations with DeMarcus Lawrence are at an impasse. Fans are hoping that the two sides will soon find common ground.

In Peter King’s Football Morning in America column this week, he detailed why a Nobel Prize-winning economics professor from the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, James Thaler, defended the Oakland Raiders trade of linebacker Khalil Mack as the Best Transaction of 2018 winner at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The reasons are not surprising.

Oakland received four draft picks (two first rounders, as well as a third and a fifth-round pick) when they sent Mack and a second-round draft pick to Chicago. The newest Bear then signed a contract averaging $23.5 million per seasons for the next six years.

Here’s what Thaler told King via ProFootballTalk.com about the lopsided trade …

"“I believe the only way to win in football is to have players who play better than their salaries … it will be hard for Mack to play better than his salary and four good draft choices.”"

This line of thinking lines up with the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens all winning the Super Bowl in the last seven seasons. Each of those teams had quarterbacks playing way above their salary cap hit.

Why is this relevant for the Cowboys? Will Lawrence, who is rumored to be asking for $22.5 million per year, worth more to Dallas at that salary? Or would a different scenario be better?

On Thursday, America’s Team finalized a trade for defensive end Robert Quinn for a 2020 sixth-round draft pick. What if the Cowboys had the Patriots’ vision and had also traded for former Eagles’ defensive end Michael Bennett and a seventh-round pick for a fifth rounder in this year’s draft?

Would Quinn, Bennett, a seventh-round draft pick and whatever other trade compensation they might be able to receive for Lawrence be better than D-Law at a $22.5 million cap hit and a few low round draft picks? Thaler might say that the likelihood Lawrence’s play would exceed his contract is very low. And the likelihood for Quinn, Bennett and a high round draft pick is much higher.

I hope that DeMarcus Lawrence and the Dallas Cowboys can find their common ground. It will be good for the team’s morale to see the Cowboys take care of one of their own. I understand why Dallas is taking a hard line. I understand also why Lawrence is protecting his interests. Let’s hope this situation doesn’t have any impact on the field next season.