Dallas Cowboys: How much will it cost to keep DeMarcus Lawrence?

As DeMarcus Lawrence is in Orlando preparing for his second Pro Bowl, the Dallas Cowboys seemed to be preparing to ink him to a long term deal.

While it seems certain that Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence will be a member of America’s Team next season, what is not known at this time is at what price. Will it be a second season under the franchise tag or will the team and player find a way to sign a longer term agreement?

According to David Helman from DallasCowboys.com, the Cowboys are making a new contract for Lawrence a huge priority. And the 26-year old pass rusher wants to remain in Dallas. So both sides clearly want this to work. But what is the magic number? How many years will the contract be?

In looking back at the past seven Super Bowl winning teams, only three defensive players had salary cap hits greater than seven percent. All three players were members of the 2012 Baltimore Ravens: Linebacker Terrell Suggs, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and safety Ed Reed.

On December 11th, the NFL announced that the 2019 salary cap will increase this year. The projected cap number is rumored to be somewhere between $187 million and $191 million.

Assuming the high-end for the cap, a seven percent contract would be $13.4 million. Would Lawrence sign a contract for less money than he earned on the franchise tag in 2018?

Just before the 2018 season, linebacker Khalil Mack and defensive tackle Aaron Donald reset the market for elite defenders. Mack signed a contract that will have cap hits between $22.3 million and $24.6 million over the next six years. Donald’s contract will have a $22.2 average cap hit over the same term.

Human nature would indicate that Lawrence would want a raise from his $17.1 million salary from 2018. Fair market value would indicate that he has earned it.

The Cowboys, according to Spotrac, have a little more than $48 million available for their 2019 salary cap. They also have several players entering their renegotiation windows: quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott, wide receiver Amari Cooper, linebacker Jaylon Smith, cornerback Byron Jones and defensive end Randy Gregory to name a few.

Spotrac has calculated market values for their next contracts as Prescott $25.2 million, Lawrence $19.7 million, Cooper $16.7 million and Elliott $9.5 million. Comparable contracts for

• Jaylon Smith: Luke Kuechly $12.4 million
• Byron Jones: Chris Harris $8.5 million
• Randy Gregory: Michael Bennett $10.1 million

My purpose is not to debate is the player comparable reasonable or not as I suspect some are high but others are low but rather to bring perspective to how much cap room the Cowboys truly have. If we agree that these are ballpark estimates, these seven players will cost Dallas $102.1 million.

Current contracts of note on the roster include:

• Offensive tackle Tyron Smith $12.2 million
• Offensive guard Zack Martin $14 million
• Center Travis Frederick $9.4 million

Which brings the total to $137.7 million for these 10 players leaving about $62 million spread between 43 active roster and 10 practice squad players.

So my question to D-Law, as your contract will be the first of these next signed contracts, how much do you want? You have stated that you have big goals for this team which I interpret as winning the Super Bowl.

Will you need respect with a $20 million average per year contract or will you realize that a 5 year contract with a $50 million signing bonus and $4 million salaries per year will be more than enough money for your family in this lifetime but also leave the Cowboys wiggle room to fill the roster depth with quality players.

I hope you get paid lots of money DeMarcus Lawrence and win the Super Bowl. What is certain to me is that your next contract will set a precedent for the Cowboys and your teammates that could lead this team on a sustained championship caliber run … or strip the team of roster depth and make any success predicated on perfect health and luck.