Dallas Cowboys: You still run the ball to win in the NFL

Dallas Cowboys fans were in awe of the offensive pyrotechnics across the NFL this season. Yet running the ball and stopping the run is still the most predictable winning formula.

The 2018 NFL season for the Dallas Cowboys is officially over. We have known this for almost a week yet I am struggling with the realization that there is not a football game this weekend that includes the ‘Boys in blue and silver.

It’s taken me a few days to come to grips with a few numbers. The numbers stuck in my head are 50 and 273.

I bet you recognize these numbers as the rushing totals for the Cowboys and the Rams. I also bet you remember the ‘Boys defense ranked fifth overall yielding about 95 yards per game and the Rams defense ranked 23rd with 122 yards per game allowed during the regular season.

But we know that past performance is not indicative of future results. For the Cowboys, the recipe for success in 2018 was to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.

In the eleven wins for the ‘Boys, they out-rushed their opponent ten times. The only game they failed to do so was the regular season finale against the New York Giants when running back Ezekiel Elliott did not play.

In the seven losses for America’s Team, they were out-rushed by their opponent five times. The only teams that did not exceed the Cowboys rushing total were the Texans and the Seahawks. I don’t plan to revisit the overtime decision to punt the ball in Houston.

So the team that rushed for the most yards won fifteen times in the eighteen games. This is not surprising as the Cowboys are built to run the ball and stop the run.

When an offense can run the ball it generally equates to imposing their will on the defense. I don’t care if you pass the ball to set up the run or run the ball to set up the passing game.

When a defense can stop the run it generally means that they impose their will on the offense. It helps dictate favorable down and distance making teams more predictable.

This is why Dak Prescott is a suitable quarterback for Dallas. At this point in his career, he won’t be mistaken for a prolific passer.

For those wanting the ‘Boys to find a Patrick Mahomes or Drew Brees to quarterback this team, I give you the following pieces of data from the last five New Orleans Saints seasons:

• 2014: Drew Brees passes for 4,952 passing yards – led NFL = 7 wins
• 2015: Brees has 4,870 passing yards – led NFL = 7 wins
• 2016: Brees passes for 5,208 yards – led NFL = 7 wins
• 2017: Brees has 4,334 passing yards = 11 wins
• 2018: Brees passes for 3,992 yards = 13 wins

Do you need more proof that a strong leading indicator for success in the NFL is running the ball? Of the eight playoff games this year, the winner out-rushed the loser six times. The Ravens out-rushed the Chargers in their Wild Card round by one yard and the Bears bested the Eagles rushing total only to lose on a double doink field goal attempt.

So you have a 75 percent chance of winning in the playoffs if you out-rush the other team. Isn’t winning in the playoffs the name of the game?

We certainly learned that the threat of the pass opens up the running game but expect Dallas to go all in on fortifying their rushing offense and defense. Keep that in mind as the Cowboys begin their roster building for the 2019 season.