Dallas Cowboys WR corps: Projecting the final numbers

After releasing Dez Bryant, doom and gloom is being cast upon the Dallas Cowboys receiving corps. Here are their projected numbers for the upcoming season.

Being a player on the Dallas Cowboys usually comes with a lot of fanfare and glamour. That is unless your part of the 2018 wide receiving corps.

This group is arguably garnering the most disrespect out of any NFL unit. Don’t believe me?

Here’s Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio trying out his comedy routine at their expense. Here’s ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranking them 30th out of 32 teams. Take a listen to the first four minutes of this podcast from the guys at Stacking The Box.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks this group is going to prosper in 2018.

Are the criticisms fair? To a point, sure.

Are their legit issues? I think that’s taking it a bit too far.

One of the biggest talking points is the lack of a true “number one” wide receiver. While it’s nice to have an Antonio Brown or a Julio Jones or a DeAndre Hopkins, the Cowboys aren’t the only team without a big-time receiver.

New England has had major success in the passing game and it’s been a decade since Randy Moss was their main guy. Detroit has finished 11th and 6th in passing yards the two years since Calvin Johnson retired.

Another is the size of their receivers as Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin are both 5’8.”

Again, I’m pretty sure Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are not the reincarnate of the Twin Towers. It is possible to have success with guys that aren’t 6’5.”

So, what does the future hold for this group? I’m taking it upon myself to provide you with the best possible prediction of the final stats for each Cowboys’ receiver in 2018.

Before we determine what those numbers will be, we first have to determine who will produce them.

Currently, there are eight receivers in training camp with a legit shot to make the team. As you know, eight receivers are not making the final roster. Five definitely will and six might.

First, let’s talk about the locks. Along with Beasley, I think everyone would believe Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup are locks. That leaves five guys for two to three spots.

Terrance Williams is probably in, solely because cutting him would cost the Cowboys $7.2M. Given that Dez Bryant is costing Dallas $8M, I cannot see them doubling their dead money and getting absolutely zero from it.

That leaves us one, maybe two spots and four guys.

It’s possible that Austin is considered some sort of hybrid, utility type guy or counts towards the final running back numbers. Somehow, I think he’s making the team.

Let’s say there is one spot left. It’s a battle royale at this point between Deonte Thompson, Noah Brown and Lance Lenoir.

Thompson has the most speed and accomplishment so far in the league. Brown is the best blocker and Lenoir is probably the best route runner. I’m giving the nod to Brown here in what may be seen as a slight upset.

Now that we have the players, let’s project out there numbers.

To start, the last two seasons, Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks, mainly named Dak Prescott, have attempted just under 500 throws per year. In 2014, the last full year of Tony Romo, there were 476 attempts.

I feel comfortable in saying Dallas does not want Dak throwing 500+ times. With that in mind, let’s put the total attempts at 480. If he completes his career average, that will mean there will be 312 completions in 2018.

Hurns will likely be the de facto number one guy. He’s the only receiver on the roster with a 1,000-yard season or a double-digit touchdown season. Hurns’ career low in targets was 56 and his high was 105. I think his sweet spot is somewhere in between but on the high side.

Beasley will likely be Prescott’s security blanket. In Dak’s rookie year, Beasley saw 98 targets and 75 receptions. Last year, there was a precipitous drop in both. Again, I’d say the likelihood is somewhere in between.

Gallup is sort of a wild card. Being a third-round draft selection, the would be to temper expectation. Seeing him in camp, it’s hard not to get excited. Last year, only two rookie receivers topped 60 receptions. The year before, just three accomplished that feat. Let’s be fair and say he falls just short.

Expect another down year for Williams. Last year was his worst in terms of yards and touchdowns. This year, I’m projecting career lows in targets and receptions.

As for Austin, as I stated earlier, I think his all-purpose factor will mean pedestrian numbers in the passing game. His worth will come in the return game and as a multi-threat option.

Lastly, I think Brown will get more action than he did in the passing game a year ago. That’s not saying much, however as he only received nine targets and four catches.

And now, here is the 2018 projected numbers for your Dallas Cowboys receiving corps.

These numbers would leave approximately 120 targets and 60 receptions to be dispersed to running backs and tight ends. While no one would make a Pro Bowl with these numbers, I think they are fair.

This type of production should be enough to take the heat off the running game. If that occurs, I think the Cowboys offense will be good enough to make some noise in 2018.

Let’s hope these numbers come to fruition.