Dallas Cowboys best case scenarios: Quarterback edition
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2017 season with some concerns about their quarterback. Will the changes they made be enough to ease those concerns?
Continuing my series about Dallas Cowboys position groups, I will be focusing on the quarterback position. In the teams best case scenario, Dak Prescott plays all 16 games. Due to this, quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Mike White will not have roles in this article.
No rookie quarterback has been scrutinized by his own fanbase in the first two years of their career more than Prescott has. For a young player drafted in the fourth round and thrust into action unexpectedly, a 22-10 record and back to back winning seasons seem like enough to inspire a collective confidence in the fanbase. But as the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, additional pressure and expectation are heaped upon you.
In Prescott’s year and a half of good football, he has shown a propensity to protect the football, be accurate in the short and intermediate when given time, uses great judgment on when to use his legs, and plays best when using multiple targets in the passing game.
And while the second half of 2017 showed us a shell-shocked version of Prescott, it also gave us the confirmation on what his natural strengths and weaknesses are. It showed us that Dak is not the type of quarterback who likes to run the passing game through one single guy. It showed us that he plays his best when he is a complement to running back Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line. The front office took these answers and developed their ‘Dak-friendly’ approach for 2018.
What does this consist of?
A re-tooled offensive line filled with first-round talent across all five positions and a receiving corps with diversity, route running, and athleticism. With time in the pocket, Elliott and the line to threaten defenses, and guys like Tavon Austin who can create space and make plays; the team has conceivably set Prescott up to succeed. If the philosophy works, the results for Prescott should look something like this.
The team is set up to have three guys with around or over 600 yards receiving as opposed to one guy with a bunch of yards. I foresee Cole Beasley, Allen Hurns, and Michael Gallup as those three targets. I believe they will all have 50 to 55 receptions with 600 to 700 yards receiving and about five touchdowns each. I believe Deonte Thompson and Cedrick Wilson will be the other notable contributors in the wide receiver group and should have 350 yards combined and three touchdowns between them both.
Blake Jarwin is a favorite to emerge as the most consistent pass-catching threat from the tight end position. As a reliable target in the middle, Jarwin should have 40 to 45 receptions with about 500 yards and four touchdowns.
If any other tight end on the roster has a significant pass-catching impact, it is Rico Gathers.
In this best-case scenario, he emerges as the red zone threat and deep middle target. With 20 receptions for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, Gathers will begin to establish a role in the passing game and could become a serious X-factor for the team late in the season.
Ezekiel Elliott, Tavon Austin, Rod Smith, and Jamize Oluwale all figure to have roles catching the ball out of the backfield, as they can turn Dak’s short passes into big plays (think Elliott’s 2016 and 2017 screen pass scores). There has been talk about involving Elliott a lot more as a receiver. While I see them using him more as a pass-catcher, his rushing duties are too much for his receiving statistics to be boosted significantly in 2018.
He had 32 receptions for 363 yards and one score. Expect a similar line for about 30 receptions for 350 yards and two scores. Tavon Austin will have about 800 yards of total offense and split yards between receiving and rushing. With around 30 receptions for 350 receiving yards and three scores, Austin and Elliott will lead a strong receiving output from the backfield.
Oluwale and Smith will be used as change of pace guys who can line up at H-back, running back, or tight end. They are good all-around players who can be used in doses. Expect 200 yards and a score on 15 receptions combined.
In this best-case scenario, the offense plays at its full potential and Prescott is able to shine. These stats end up being 3,800 to 4,000 yards passing, 28-30 touchdowns, and a top seven offense in the league. With Elliott commanding most of the attention, Prescott and his targets should have all the looks they want in order to produce a similar performance to this prediction.
Next: 30 greatest players in Dallas Cowboys history
Quarterbacks make their biggest leap from year two to three. IF the offensive system and philosophy are executed correctly by coaches and players alike, Dak Prescott has a good chance of looking like top 8 to 12 quarterback in the league.