Dallas Cowboys: The key to landing Earl Thomas

What is the key to the Dallas Cowboys landing All-Pro free safety Earl Thomas? I believe it will hinge on the team’s potential heading into 2019 and beyond.

The Dallas Cowboys have a lack of proven performance at the free safety position. With Xavier Woods penciled in as the starter and Jeff Heath behind him, it seems as though the team is taking a huge risk with their free safety depth. With Seattle Seahawks safety Earl Thomas‘s public interest in the team, it seems like a no-brainer for the team to acquire Thomas.

But unless a decision is made before the end of camp, it seems as though the team will have to trade for Thomas in-season or sign him as a free agent in 2019. If it gets past camp, the decision will be solely up to how successful the team is and their potential for the future.

The Cowboys are quietly on the verge of building a Superbowl contender in the echelon of teams such as Los Angeles, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Minnesota. These teams have all built their teams within a similar theme.

They have invested resources in acquiring strong offensive and defensive lines, while drafting well enough to provide enough B to B+ players to complete the roster. These teams have been built to not have any glaring weaknesses and have depth across the board.

The 2016 Cowboys team wasn’t in that category; neither was the 2014 squad. Both teams had glaring weaknesses on defense, especially the secondary. I know there is a strong minority of fans who think quarterback Dak Prescott is not an NFL caliber quarterback. But at this point in his career, there is much more evidence that suggests he can play than not, so I will assume he proves to be a franchise quarterback in 2018.

With running back Ezekiel Elliott returning along with a restocked offensive line, the team should go right back to the 27 point per game team they were in the first half of 2017 and the whole 2016. With the receiving corps built on technique, timing, and diversity; there should be no issue matching the level of play needed to move the ball efficiently.

The team has tight ends who can block, which is almost the only thing the team needs out of its tight ends. The tight end group has enough raw talent for one of the four to emerge as a reliable pass-catching option as well. The team does not need significant statistical production from its receivers and tight ends to be successful. The guys on the roster now are more than capable of filling in statistically for the departed skill position players this offseason.

I foresee the offense being largely successful with the personnel they have now. This would make the skill position units a secondary need in the offseason if one at all. Leaving one technique defensive tackle and safety as the only positions in ‘need’.

But what does the potential success of the offense mean for Earl Thomas?

If indeed the offense lives up to the front office’s projections, the team would suddenly be only a position or so away on paper to be in the club the teams I mentioned previously are in. In a 2019 draft filled with interior defensive line talent in the first three rounds, the team could finish night one of the draft with no on paper personnel needs.

Here is where we go back to Woods and Heath. If they cannot prove to be productive players at their position and turn out to be solely rotational guys, then the team will be in the perfect circumstances to pursue Thomas aggressively. With the cap room the team has next summer, it will have enough to sign its own guys while having just enough for one marquee outsider.

If Woods and Heath flop, Thomas could become that ceremonial ‘last piece of the puzzle’ for Dallas’s Super Bowl run.

But if the team doesn’t show that Super Bowl contender potential, then the resources devoted to Thomas whether financial or in the draft, will prove to be too great. The team will need the draft capital to find their guy at the position while plugging the other holes the team would have.

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The key to landing Earl Thomas is how good this team can be. If the front office believes we are one player away, then they will not hesitate to pull the trigger. Whether they realize it in training camp, midseason, or next offseason; it will be the key to the acquisition of Thomas.