Dallas Cowboys: Using history to forecast draft future

Using the last decade of drafts, we can get a good idea of which positions would be best for the Dallas Cowboys to focus on drafting next week.

With the NFL Draft less than a week away, we will soon know who will be the next Dallas Cowboys.  This week marks the final time we can attempt to guess at who that player will be or what position he plays.

In a few days, I will unveil my final seven round mock draft.  Today, however, I thought it would be fun to use draft history as a tool to narrow down the Cowboys draft path.

In previous articles, I have discussed how to use mock drafts to get a gauge on who Dallas could draft. I have matched need with the best player available.  I’ve also touched upon the possibility of moving up in the draft and who is worthy of doing such a thing.

Today, we’ll look at the past decade of drafts to see which positions usually go in the first round.  We’ll also look at the positions that have a higher success rate than others.

Since 2008, there have been 318 players selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.  Twice, New England had to forfeit a selection for various rule infractions.  Here is a positional breakdown of those selections:

Of note, no kicker has been a first round selection since Oakland chose Sebastian Janikowski in the 2000 draft.  No punter has had their name called in round one since Steve Little by the St. Louis Cardinals in 1978.  If Dallas was to buck this trend, you can expect a riot at the draft.

It’s fair to assume that quarterback, running back and center are definitely out of the mix with the 19^thoverall pick.  All other positions are in the mix, although some (linebacker) have more urgency than others (cornerback).

When you think of the draft, I think it’s also fair to assume the following expectations.

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If you’re selecting in the top ten, the player you draft should best be described as a “core” guy. That is to say he is, at minimum, one of your top eight guys on the roster year after year.  You would like him to have multiple Pro-Bowl selections. If he’s a consistent Pro-Bowl selection or All-Pro, your scouting was successful.

If you throw out last year’s draft class to allow time for development, exactly 70 players have been a top ten pick in the last decade.  Of those 70 guys, just over half (37) fit that expectation.

For any other player selected in the first round, the minimum expectation would be that the player turns into a solid starter.  Any of the aforementioned accolades would be gravy.  If he’s not a starter or a constant contributor, your draft process needs tweaking.

Going by those parameters, 218 players have been chosen between 11^thand 32^ndoverall.  Of those, 128 are/were, at minimum, solid starters.  You can narrow this down even further as it related to where Dallas is drafting.  Out of 70 players selected between the 16^thand 22^ndpicks, 45 have become solid starters for their teams.

This is all to say that the Dallas Cowboys have a better than 50% chance of landing a solid starter at pick nineteen.  But which positions tend to succeed better than others?

Here is a breakdown, by position, of first round picks that would be considered picks that went well.

How could using this information help the Dallas Cowboys?

The biggest needs on this team happen to be linebacker, safety, defensive tackle, guard and receiver. All but one of those positions have shown a better than 50% success rate.

If you want the Cowboys to be ultra-safe, guard or safety appear to be the best bets. UTEP’s Will Hernandez or Stanford’s Justin Reid could prove capable of being starters for many years to come

If you prefer a little more pizzazz with your pick but still want security, those options exist as well.  Alabama linebacker Rashaan Evans or defensive tackle Da’Ron Payne immediately come to mind.

Lastly, if you’re more about rolling the dice without care of busting, you’re rooting for Dallas to draft a receiver early.

Next: Dallas Cowboys - 15 best first-round picks of all-time

Whichever direction the Dallas Cowboys choose to go, there is a better than average likelihood they will get help.  The odds are in their favor.  Hopefully their next first round selection works out like Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick or Zack Martin did.  If not, the group of people making these decisions next year will likely be much different.