The Landry Hat
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Matt Cassel’s success in Dallas could be tied to this number

By Isaac Niedrauer

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By now most Dallas Cowboys fans are fully aware that journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel will most likely get the starting nod when his team travels to the Meadowlands for crucial battle with the New York Giants. Most have also read the analysis, showing the marked difference between Cassel’s early success with the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, and more ineffective stints with the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills.

The popular narrative seems to suggest that naming Cassel the starter, while necessary, wreaks of desperation as a promising season slips away. After an 0-3 start to the Brandon Weeden era, that isn’t entirely wrong. That anecdote usually ends with something about Cassel likely leading to more disaster for Cowboys Nation – and maybe that isn’t entirely incorrect either.

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But I’m here to offer some hope; some optimism in what has been a tumultuous last week at Valley Ranch. Matt Cassel did struggle late in his Kansas City tenure, and certainly in Minnesota. But there’s reason to believe things will be different here.

Let’s start with the first three years of Cassel’s career as a starter – a season that saw him assume the starting role for the Patriots after a Tom Brady knee injury, and two more in Kansas City after being traded the following off-season. These are typically the seasons that pundits point to when the refer to the old Cassel, before he lost his form, fell out of favor in Kansas City, and endured some less than stellar seasons elsewhere.

During those three seasons, a player managed to rush over 100 yards in 14 starts for Cassel. Those were relatively successful outings as would be expected, good enough for a 93.94 passer rating compared to an 83.91 overall during the same period.

Two injury riddled seasons in Kansas City culminated in his jettisoning from the Chiefs. They also marked a steep statistical decline in the career of Matt Cassel.

From the 2011 season to the present, not only has Cassel managed to throw more interceptions than touchdowns, but his overall passer rating has been a measly 74.0. To put that in perspective, among qualified quarterbacks in 2014, only two, Blake Bortles and Josh McCown, finished the season with a passer rating lower than 74.0. These are the numbers that people are quick to jump on when discussing the success potential of a Dallas Cowboys offense led by Matt Cassel.

But there’s another side to the story too: Cassel has depended on a competent rushing attack throughout his career. Unfortunately in his final two seasons in Kansas City and beyond, he has enjoyed far less success from teammates on the ground. In fact, a player has only rushed for 100+ yards in 7 starts for Cassel since the end of the 2010 season. 

His average quarterback passer rating in those starts? 90.3.

Is Matt Cassel actually an inferior quarterback than he was during his brilliant 2010 season? It’s possible, but these numbers seem to suggest there are other factors (hint: playing for inferior teams) that led to an apparent decline.

They also could mean that for the Dallas Cowboys to be successful, the running game has to take flight (no pun intended). Whether it’s Joseph Randle, Christine Michael, or somebody else, creating and maintaining success on the ground could bring on a resurgent Matt Cassel. If somehow they do light it up on the ground and Cassel still struggles, then perhaps these numbers are meaningless. But if you’re searching for hope while the Cowboys use their much needed Bye Week to find a groove, maybe it’s discovering a running game that you really should be wishing for.

Or maybe, just a win against the New York Giants. As Weeden’s completion percentage reminds us, numbers are meaningless without wins to back them up.

Next: Jason Garrett's inexperience likely wasted Tony Romo's prime

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