Third Quarter Dallas Cowboys Stock Report

Three quarters of the NFL regular season is now complete. Judging by the exceptionally mediocre record of 6-6 it’s clear many stocks on the Dallas Cowboy Stock Exchange (DCSE) did not perform at the level they were expected to.  At the beginning of the DCSE fiscal trading year many analysts felt stocks would be soring by the end of the third quarter. With the third quarter appearing to be the easiest stretch it’s easy to understand why such optimism existed. The Cowboys are now facing a very challenging fourth quarter. It’s perfectly feasible the Cowboys could win all 4 and just as likely lose all 4. In this report analysts have reviewed players’ performance and will make recommendations based on past and expected performance.

Dec 2, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant (88) celebrates a third quarter touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

With only one quarter remaining in the Dallas Cowboys regular season it is time again to report the performance of your Dallas Cowboys Stock Portfolio. We will first identify and inform you of the Bulls (good stocks on the upswing) and Bears (bad stocks on the downswing). Also included on this report are the buy/sell recommendations, the hottest IPO (Rookie and first year stocks), stock to hold, and Blue Chip stocks. After tracking recent trends on the Dallas Cowboy’s Stock Exchange (DCSE), these stocks have stood out after eight games of the Dallas Cowboys 2012 season:

The Bulls (Hot Stocks Rising in Value)

Dez Bryant: Dez has had an absolutely bi-polar season in 2012. He began the season with extremely high expectations. Trusted analysts felt he would finish with 1300 yards and 10 TD’s. At the midpoint of the season it seemed these projections were horribly wrong. He was pacing to only finish with 1006 yards and 4 TD’s – not exactly the breakout season investors were hoping for. The next 4 games Dez got back on track to achieve those previously expected numbers. He is now pacing 1304 yards and 11 TD’s.

More importantly Dez has been reading defenses properly and making adjustments when the situation dictates it. He struggled with this early in the season resulting in many easy interceptions and diminishing opportunities from Tony Romo. Dez seems to be getting it and those who invested earlier this season are seeing the dividends. These is no reason to believe his performance is an aberration and he is primed to remain a Bull stock for some time now.

Dec 2, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) throws in the pocket to tight end Jason Witten (82) in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Cowboys Stadium. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-33. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Tony Romo: Coming off his best season of his career in 2011(statistically speaking), Romo has struggled to continue last seasons performance.

The patchwork offensive line has never allowed Romo to operate comfortably from the pocket. The receiving corps was equally as unreliable often running incorrect routes and making incorrect adjustments. DeMarco Murray’s injury combined with the poor play of the offensive line resulted in no run game to support Tony Romo and his offensive attack. Despite all of these obstacles Romo has managed to pull this offense up and carry the team on his back.

After posting an 87 Quarterback Rating (QBR) through the first half of the season, Tony Romo has posted his finest 4 game stretch of the season. In that stretch he has a 112.5 QBR, 9 TD’s, 2 INT’s, and a 68% completion percentage all while running for his life behind a turnstile offensive line . The fortune of facing Philly twice in the same stretch certainly helps with these numbers but it’s still an impressive turnaround. Analysts typically call this an unsustainable recipe but given his spectacular play the second half of the season, they have labeled him as a reliable Bull to carry any portfolio.

The Bears (Cold Stocks Falling in Value)

Doug Free: Not much has been said that hasn’t already been said. Doug Free stock was one of the most expense stocks in his positional industry and yet he is one of the poorest performing companies within the right tackle industry. Injuries and a learning curve have impacted the entire offensive line but all things considered the others have fought admirably. Sadly the same cannot be said for Doug.

Doug Free needed to be the cornerstone but instead he has been the Achilles. He has had the distinction of being one of the most penalized players in the NFL and also allowing the most pressure. There is no hope of a performance rebound. Sell Doug Free stocks for anything you can get.

Dec 2, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett prior to the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Coaching Staff: This is one of the smartest coaching staffs in the league but somehow it coaches some of the dumbest players in the league. The Head Coach is an Ivy Leaguer who played professional football for 12 seasons. It’s safe to say he’s one of the smartest coaches in the NFL if not the smartest. The Defensive Coordinator comes from a legendary football family. He is a savant of NFL schemes and strategy. The only problem is sometimes he’s too smart for his own good and beats himself. The Special Teams Coach has made a career of motivating and building reliable units from various rag-tag groups of players. One of the most respected men in the entire league. Ask around.

How are all of these masters of their profession coaching one of the dumbest teams in the NFL? They are too afraid to practice accountability. Blame Jerry Jones if you want but the first line of this responsibility lies on the coaching staff. If a player is displaying poor effort – bench him for a few plays. If a player has an irresponsible penalty – bench him for a few plays. If a player is not performing as you expect him to – bench him. If someone has proven they do not and will not meet expectations – cut him. Playing and working with fear isn’t comfortable but it’s very effective.

Stock to Hold

DeMarco Murray: Perhaps the hottest stock on the market is DeMarco Murray. Analysts recommend applying a wait and see approach as he maybe overpriced at this point. The offensive line is still playing poorly, the defenses yet to face the final four games are better than average (With the exception of NO), and DeMarco is still not 100% and has a history of injuries. If you own stock in Murray, hold it because he has high earnings potential. If you don’t have stock you will probably want to watch him the remainder of the year to get a better view of his performance.

Hottest IPO (Initial Public Offering aka: Rookie/First Year Stock)

Morris Claiborne: For the entire first half of this year, Bruce Carter was the hottest IPO. While Bruce Carter was technically in his 2^nd season, the stock analysts viewed last year as a red-shirt year, with 2012 as his first year on the market. Since Bruce is now injured, Mo gets the nod.

Morris Claiborne is playing well for a rookie CB. Many people have been disappointed with his play and his limited “big plays” but the reality is, most rookie CB’s begin their careers very slowly. He was drafted because of his ability to play strong man coverage. At this point, he has played more zone but that should change. Run defense is suffering so expect less protection in the secondary. This is a time when Mo can really step up and make some big plays. Analysts agree, he’s primed to break out.

 Buy Low

Nov 4, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dwayne Harris (17) makes a long punt return in the first half against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley: Dallas coaching staff has long been poor at installing young receivers, preferring instead to play older and less talented receivers (Like Ogletree).  In Dwayne and Cole’s limited opportunities they have provided effective if not spectacular plays. This is expected to increase moderately and likely breakout next season.

Investors should buy stock here for long term investment potential. Ogletree is likely to be gone next season so expect these two to fill the void.

Sell High

Anthony Spencer: He has played fantastic this year (when healthy) but he will demand too much money to resign next season. The Cowboys will be very limited to what they can do with personnel and smart money says offensive line is priority 1, 2, and 3. Expect more playing time from Victor Butler who continues to impress in his limited playing time.

Blue Chip Stocks

The Blue Chip stocks are stocks who are at the absolute top of their field in performance and earnings. These are stocks you can invest in, depend on, and retire with. They are the reliable moneymakers that can solidify an investor portfolio. This season the Dallas Cowboys Stock exchange recognizes two player stocks who have qualified for this Blue Chip status, Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware. They are the top performers in their positional industry and can be relied on to support an entire portfolio on their own.