Cowboys vs Giants: Gut projection
Projection: Dallas Cowboys 31, New York Giants 17
Let’s talk about the massive mismatch here. That is the Cowboys’ pass defense against the Giants’ passing offense. The Cowboys are the top passing defense in the league allowing just 174.5 passing yards per game. The Giants are the 28th-ranked passing offense in the league throwing for just 177.3 yards per game. This is a huge advantage if the Cowboys can get into passing downs.
Alternatively, the script flips when New York runs it. They are the fourth-best rushing offense per game in the NFL, while the Cowboys run defense is the 26th-ranked unit. The key for the Cowboys here is to get out to a lead early and force the Giants’ hand in throwing the ball to neutralize Saquon Barkley.
The Giants’ run defense is not much better. They allow 136 yards per game, the same amount that the Cowboys run for with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Dak Prescott’s legs have come to life as well. Dallas figures to run the ball effectively again and try to be bullies on offense.
The Giants’ pass defense is very middle-of-the-road and with Prescott appearing to be back to his normal self and in rhythm with Lamb, Gallup, Dalton, Schultz, and others, he could have some openings to pick apart the Giants downfield in the passing game.
To sum all of that up, the Giants are 7-3 yet the only average 20.5 points per game and will take on a defense leading the league with just 16.7 points per game allowed. The Giants may struggle to score more than 17 here.
The Cowboys’ offense has averaged 39 points per game over their last three and has things clicking. Look for them to churn out another performance beyond 30 points, feast pass rushing, and notch a big-time NFC East win on Thanksgiving Day.