Will the Dallas Cowboys win a Super Bowl in the near future?

After seeing a recent publication predict a Super Bowl ring in the near future, I examine why that may not be in the cards for the Dallas Cowboys.

Heading into 2018, it has been 22 years since the Dallas Cowboys last won professional football’s ultimate trophy. Since that time, the Cowboys have not even been particularly close.

They are one of just three teams to miss the NFC Championship over the last two decades. They have made the playoffs just nine times in this span. In fact, Dallas has more seasons with eight or fewer wins (11) than playoff appearances since 1996.

Given these facts, you can imagine the shock that came over me when I saw a prediction of ultimate success for Dallas. To double down on that awe, this Super prediction is coming from someone affiliated with a Cowboys rival.

Recently, Dan Graziano of ESPN New York put out a column of 25 predictions over the next three years. This was his third prediction and the justification behind his prophecy: The Dallas Cowboys will win one of the next three Super Bowls.

"It just feels as if people are sleeping on a team that went 9-7 last year while its best player/key to the offense was suspended for six games. Assuming Ezekiel Elliott plays all 16 games, there’s no reason not to like the Cowboys as 2018 contenders. And with their dominant offensive line all under contract and Dak Prescott still on his rookie deal at quarterback, there’s no reason to think there’s any major drop-off coming in the short term."

It seems well thought out to be honest. His major points are all valid. Elliott is without question one of the three or four best running backs in the NFL. The offensive line would have to make anyone’s top three list as well.

Prescott being on his rookie contract is marginally helpful. Technically, he has this year and next to play at a huge discount, given his early success. Whether or not he would do so next year if 2018 is more in line with 2016 remains to be seen.

In my opinion, the $25M of dead money that comes off the books next year is far more crucial from a cap perspective. That, of course, will likely go to retaining both Prescott and pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence.

Applying the franchise tag to either in the next two seasons will prove costlier than doing a long-term deal. Doing so, of course, will negate this advantage, however.

Beyond that, there are mitigating factors on both sides of the argument that make this such an intriguing prediction.

Continuing with reasons that may make this come true, I’m particularly encouraged by the progress of the Dallas Cowboys defense. Last week, I wrote about how they may actually bail out the offense this season.

I do believe the Cowboys have enough star power at key positions to make a Super Bowl run as well.

Sadly, there are clear reasons why I can also see this team failing on that goal.

For one, I do not believe that Jason Garrett and this coaching staff are capable of leading a team to the highest level. This year could be his last which would be both a blessing and a curse. A new coach may be better, but it’s rare that a new coach comes in and instantly takes a team all the way.

Another reason I have pessimism about this prophecy relates to the Cowboys and their position in the NFL hierarchy. While I see Dallas as a top five NFC team, top five is not going to be good enough. I think the last thing any Cowboys fan wants to see is another playoff matchup against Aaron Rodgers.

The Vikings and Saints do not seem overly fun to be paired against either.

Lastly, the Dallas Cowboys inability to win games at home seems like a big issue that needs correcting.

When looking at the last five Super Bowl winners, one thing they all do is win at home. Over the past five years, Philadelphia New England, Denver, and Seattle have a combined winning percentage of .750 in their friendly confines.

The Cowboys are 20-20 at home since 2013. That is six games worse than the Eagles, ten worse than Denver and Seattle and 14 worse than the Patriots. Each of those four teams has three or more seasons with 6+ home victories. Dallas has one. Consistently good teams take care of business at home.

Next: The top 10 Dallas Cowboys to never win a Super Bowl

Will the Dallas Cowboys win a Super Bowl in the near future?

No one knows. There are factors that make it seem entirely possible but the reality is not so much. The Dallas Cowboys should be playoff contenders for many years to come. Whether or not they parlay that into Super success requires proof it can be done.

Under the current regime, I would put that feat as less than likely.