Do the Dallas Cowboys project as a playoff team in 2018?

During the season of conjecture, one national media source left the Dallas Cowboys out of the playoffs for 2018. Here is why they got it wrong.

Welcome to the dog days of summer, where there is nothing actually football relatable to talk about. Instead, we are waist deep in the prediction and guessing season. Per usual, any inclusion or exclusion of the Dallas Cowboys will always create a discussion.

In this particular instance, I will address and exclusion of sorts. The perpetrator is an old reliable when it comes to Cowboys slander. The “Worldwide Leader” up in Bristol put out a slightly entertaining article last week predicting possible new teams in the playoff mix.

In case you missed it, they chose five teams who could be in and five who could be out.

To be fair, of the five, three reside in the AFC which clearly does not affect the Dallas Cowboys. The two teams they have missing the tournament, Carolina and Atlanta, are interesting enough.

The two replacements, Green Bay and San Francisco, represent an obvious choice and one massive swing for the fences.

Let’s start with discussing who they have out.

Atlanta has won 21 games in two seasons. Carolina has made the playoffs in four of the last five years, with three seasons of 11+ wins.

Did either team get appreciably worse over the offseason?

Carolina’s biggest free agent losses were guard Andrew Norwell, safety Kurt Coleman and running back Jonathan Stewart. They replaced defensive tackle Star Lotuleli with former Falcons star Dontari Poe.

They also addressed their need for defensive back help by drafting Donte Jackson from LSU and Rashaan Gaulden from Tennessee. Norwell will be hard to replace but it’s not like Cam Newton is used to enjoying plenty of time in the pocket. Maybe the running game takes a slight hit, but their defense is better so that would seem like a wash.

In Atlanta, star receiver Julio Jones wants more money but he’ll show up for camp. When he does, he will have rookie Calvin Ridley to help with the heavy lifting. For an offense that is already potent, this addition is just another case of the rich getting richer. Where Atlanta could falter, however is defensively. The loss of Poe was not really addressed. Cowboys killer Adrian Clayborn also has moved on.

Clearly I disagree with their choice of Carolina, so let’s say Atlanta is the one to go.

I think Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams are locks to rejoin the playoff fray, so now we have three teams in. Green Bay went 3-6 last year due to an Aaron Rodgers injury and would have needed to go 6-3 to make the playoffs.

Is Aaron Rodgers good enough to flip those results?

Absolutely!

Given that they play a third place schedule in 2018, I can see them as the fourth option. That leaves Philadelphia and New Orleans.

New Orleans, much like Carolina and Atlanta, have four games against the AFC North. Sadly, that division may be one of the worst in football. Each team could likely see 2-3 wins from those contests at minimum.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, rode a fourth place division schedule in 2016 to a miracle season last year. Thirteen wins and a Super Bowl later, it seems difficult to question the legitimacy of their upcoming season.

A closer look, however, reveals two huge red flags.

One, the Eagles record against teams with winning records in the regular season was just 3-2. All three wins were by less than one score. In fact, only six of their 13 total wins were by more than one score.

The other red flag is the Dallas Cowboys themselves. There is no doubt that the Eagles took advantage of Dallas missing Ezekiel Elliott for six games last year. Good for them for doing so but this year, both of those advantages will be gone.

It will also be interesting to see how Carson Wentz rebounds from his serious leg injury. It may take time for him to acclimate back as I’m sure Philadelphia will be extra cautious in rushing him back.

I don’t think the Eagles are a guarantee for a playoff spot. In fact, as I see it, the Eagles, Saints, Cowboys and Lions will all be in the mix for two spots.

By the way, those at Bristol think that the San Francisco 49ers are the other viable contender for a playoff spot. The kind retort would be that they are not yet ready for primetime.

The facts are simple. A team with four straight losing seasons under their belts is not going to overtake a team with 38 wins in the last four years.

I’m not going to waste my time (or yours) doing a head-to-head comparison of the two teams and their talent level. It’s not close. If you really need evidence of that, put on film last year’s 40-10 route in the Bay.

Yes, I’m aware this was pre-Jimmy Garoppolo. Yes, I’m aware he’s never lost a professional start. Guess what, he’s not that good that he’s making a 30-point difference.

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Tis the season for predictions, but you can take this one to the bank. The Dallas Cowboys are a better team and will finish with a better record than the 49ers.

Will that be enough for a playoff spot? Guess we’ll just have to wait and see…