Fair expectations of Dallas Cowboys first round selection
By Tyrone Starr
Under pressure as a first round pick, playing for a Dallas Cowboys team with high aspirations, what is a realistic expectation of Taco Charlton?
Last Sunday, I wrote a piece revolving around the Dallas Cowboys previous high selection at defensive end. Today, we look at the most recent player to fit that description.
When the Cowboys made Michigan defensive end Taco Charlton the 28th overall selection in this year’s draft, the reason was obvious. This franchise has been mediocre at best getting after the opposing quarterback for far too long.
In fact, since 2000, the Dallas Cowboys have finished 21st or worse in ten of seventeen seasons. Only four times have the Cowboys posted 40+ sacks a team in that time span.
On the current roster, two of the three players with the most career sacks have yet to play a down for Dallas. No one on the team has more than fifteen career sacks. Only three have double-digit totals for their career.
Clearly, the highest priority over the next few drafts will be to add guys who can pressure the quarterback. Did the Cowboys accomplish this task in drafting Charlton?
While fans and this organization alike are chomping at the bit to find out this answer, it would be wise to temper expectations.
I went back through 31 players drafted since 2000 to see what their production was like in their rookie campaigns. As a note, all of these players were drafted between 16th and 55th overall. All of them play the majority of their snaps on the line as well.
These parameters were chosen in an effort to measure Charlton to his most likely peers. There are no linebackers that play in a 3-4 scheme. Using the late first through late second rounds also offers the opportunity to evaluate similar talent levels.
So, what’s the probable ceiling for Taco Charlton?
Well, only three players were able to amass more than eight sacks in their rookie season. Cincinnati’s Carlos Dunlap (9.5), Cleveland’s Jabaal Sheard (8.5) and Washington’s Preston Smith (8.0) all had great initial campaigns.
It’s unlikely that Charlton will reach these numbers solely due to the Cowboys defensive scheme. Dallas likes to rotate several players so the number of opportunities are already fewer than most.
Five other rookies since 2010 have totaled between six and eight sacks in their rookie seasons. If Charlton can land somewhere in that zone, it will be a good sign for his future. Of the six players to have six or more sacks as a rookie and three or more years in the league, the average is 43 career sacks. The average per year sack total is over seven.
Dallas would be ecstatic to land a player who consistently gave them seven sacks a year.
As you might suspect, the reverse is also true.
Since 2010, fourteen of the 31 players with more than one year in the league reviewed tallied less than three sacks as a rookie. The average per year sack total is barely over four. Five, including current Dallas Cowboy DeMarcus Lawrence have yet to tally double-digit career sacks.
There are a few who have been able to overcome their disappointing rookie seasons. Cameron Jordan (46.5), Derrick Morgan (36.5) and Jerry Hughes (36.0) have gone on to be solid pass rushers.
Ultimately, a player’s rookie sack total is generally a decent look into the crystal ball of their future.
I don’t suspect Charlton to obtain eight or more sacks as a rookie. The playing time, along with his talent level (in my opinion) doesn’t appear to make that likely. I can, however, see somewhere between six and eight.
Next: Ten free agents who could replace Nolan Carroll in Dallas
If Taco Charlton can do so, the 28th overall pick will be a wise selection when we look back five years from now. Given the Cowboys recent history with pass rushers, one would consider that as a step in the right direction towards building a young, dominate defense.