Dallas Cowboys: No sophomore slump for Ezekiel Elliott
By Kip Gaudette
With the Dallas Cowboys 2016 league rushing leader entering year two, will Ezekiel Elliott be challenged by the NFL’s biggest superstition; the “sophomore slump?”
Two of the newest and biggest names in all of football are Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Considered rookie “phenoms,” expectations are extremely high for their second season. They play the two most prestigious positions in the game. And they do so in the spotlight that always shines on “America’s Team.”
One can only imagine that kind of pressure. And for second year players in the NFL, a theoretical myth looms; the sophomore slump.
But is it real?
The term is usually aimed towards the quarterbacks, but today I’m tackling (pun of the day) Ezekiel Elliott and the running back position.
Looking for evidence of slumps, I examined running backs that meet these criteria;
- “Featured” backs on their team (as opposed to “running back by committee” tendencies).
- Having a similar number of rushing attempts between years one and two.
- Exhibiting a significant change in production.
Historically, the most noteworthy sophomore slump may have come from the Pittsburgh Steelers legendary Franco Harris. In Harris’ second year, with the same number of touches, his production dropped by 468 total yards and 8 touchdowns. His rushing average fell from 5.6 yards per game to 3.7.
1973 was a long time ago, so what about the modern age NFL? Most running backs I examined do not show a statistical difference. Others had disqualifying circumstances such as prolonged injuries. Yet here are a few players to consider.
Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams: In 2016, Gurley played three more games than in 2015, but rushed for 221 fewer yards on 49 more carries. However, Gurley was not running behind a pro-bowl caliber line such as the Cowboys have built.
Running backs still (or recently) in the league that also exhibited a decline in year two includes LeGarrette Blount, Matt Forte, and even ex-Cowboy fan favorite, DeMarco Murray.
Other modern running backs of note have accomplished the opposite. Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell all statistically improved upon their rookie season.
Researching other running backs as a gauge to predict Elliott’s second season is simply an amusing exercise. When I began to look at the data, I had no idea what I’d find.
Finding no statistical proof of a sophomore slump for running backs, one must return to the evidence of last season; Ezekiel Elliott is the “real deal” and is primed to have another outstanding season.
Next: Dallas Cowboys - Five bold predictions for 2017
Is it reasonable to expect Elliott to top or match his 2016 production? I say yes. Mark me down for 1600+ rushing yards, 420 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns from the second year back in 2017.