Dallas Cowboys draft uncertainty is real and justified

At the Senior Bowl, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was often asked if he must draft a quarterback this year. His strong response had no intent to deceive.

What star college player will secure the Dallas Cowboys coveted 4th overall draft selection? With each passing day the million dollar question looms larger.

Hiding draft intentions is common practice for all NFL teams. No general manager wants to tip his hand in this high stakes game of poker.

Last week at the Senior Bowl, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was often asked if he must draft a quarterback this year. His combative response had no intent to deceive.

"There are many options. There’s free agency … We have to (draft a QB) to do what? We have to win a Super Bowl next year? Do we have to compete for a Super Bowl in the future? Do you have to have it in place after this draft? There’s no have-to here, in my mind, because we have the luxury of having Romo here for three, four, five more years. — Cowboys owner Jerry Jones"

There is little doubt Jones is weighing Tony Romo‘s future value along with each college passer’s value in the draft.

By even mentioning free agency in general, Jones is signaling what worthy draft predictors should already know…necessary information is still missing.

The following are key NFL calendar dates which affect the draft process:

Feb. 23-29: NFL Scouting Combine

March 15: Start of new league year ; Free Agency Period begins

April 28-30: 2016 NFL Draft

There are still 19 days until the Cowboys staff gets a first-hand look at most of their early round player options.

The testing, drills, and interviews administered at the combine will strongly influence player value scores.

Once March begins (after the combine), Dallas will finally be able to rate a player’s entire package and rank them accordingly.

FREE AGENCY ADJUSTMENTS

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The free agency feeding frenzy begins on March 15. Teams spend roughly five weeks seeking veterans to fill roster holes before shifting the focus solely on the draft.

Transactions made during the initial five weeks of free agency often alter draft strategy, be it slightly or significantly.

One must determine what roster holes were filled, and also what need positions were relieved of solid free agent options by other teams.

For instance, Buffalo will likely release Pro Bowl pass rusher Mario Williams. If Dallas signed him before the draft, their options would change instantly.

Demarcus Lawrence (2014 2nd round pick), Randy Gregory (2015 2nd round pick), and Mario Williams would firmly fill starting needs at defensive end.

The Cowboys would no longer consider using their high value pick on a defensive end like Joey Bosa or Noah Spence.

Options would also change if Dallas adds a promising veteran quarterback like Robert Griffin III before the draft. A rookie QB would remain a target, yet urgency decreases.

CONCLUSION

Currently no player is a glaring lock for selection with the 4th overall pick. There’s even a good chance Dallas trades back to add picks.

Quarterback, defensive end, linebacker, and cornerback are all very legitimate options at #4. Even selecting the draft’s top receiver makes sense.

Defending a pair of large, highly talented WR’s like Dez Bryant and Laquon Treadwell would be as brutal as facing Atlanta’s Julio Jones and Roddy White.

If forced to make a guess today with limited information, my early money is on trading back and adding another second round pick.

At this point no player blows me away enough to stay put at Pick 4. There’s more value in waiting five picks, selecting a talented starter, and adding an extra top 50 selection.

This early prediction should change in time. As Coach Garrett says, “it’s a process”.

Next: Former Redskin: RG3 will sign with Cowboys due to Jerry Jones

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