Numbers Say Cowboys Will Pass On Melvin Gordon & Todd Gurley

I’ve been stating the Dallas Cowboys will not select a highly ranked running back in the first round. My statement puzzles some members of Cowboy Nation. A closer look at the numbers may highlight the reasons I feel confident about my prediction.

How often has the most productive college running back been rewarded with a high draft pick? Let’s review the players that led the NCAA in total yards from scrimmage. Usually, that would be a running back because they have both rushing and receiving yards.

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Those players are listed along with their position in the next year’s draft. I also listed the first running back selected and their overall draft position. Often, the guy with the most overall total yards wasn’t the first running back selected.

My reference source (Sports-Reference.com) included bowl game yardages.

Year	Yardage Leader	Yards	Draft Position (Overall)	First RB Drafted (Overall)
2005	Reggie Bush	2218	1^st Rnd / 2^nd	Reggie Bush – 2^nd
2006	Garrett Wolfe	2177	3^rd Rnd / 93^rd	Adrian Peterson – 7^th
2007	Kevin Smith	2809	3^rd Rnd / 64^th	Darren McFadden – 4^th
2008	Donald Brown	2208	1^st Rnd / 27^th	Knowshon Moreno – 12^th
2009	Donald Buckram	2047	Undrafted	C.J. Spiller – 9^th
2010	LaMichael James	1939	2^nd Rnd / 61^st	Mark Ingram – 28^th
2011	Montee Ball	2229	2^nd Rnd / 58^th in 2013	Trent Richardson – 3^rd
2012	Ka’Deem Carey	2232	4^th Rnd / 117^th in 2014	Giovani Bernard – 37^th
2013	Antonio Andrews	2208	Undrafted	Bishop Sankey – 54^th
2014	Melvin Gordon	2740	???????	???????

Only two of the yardage leaders from scrimmage were drafted in the first round. Donald Buckram joined the Cleveland Browns as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2011. Antonio Andrews joined the Tennessee Titans as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2014, the same year the Titans drafted running back Bishop Sankey.

Do the numbers support the theory that running backs have been devalued in the NFL? Look at how many players from each position have been drafted in the first round since 2010. Defensive backs include cornerbacks and safeties.

NFL First Round Draft Picks By Position
	QB	RB	TE	WR	OL	DL	LB	DB
2010	2	3	1	2	6	9	2	7
2011	4	1	0	3	8	12	1	3
2012	4	3	0	4	4	10	2	5
2013	1	0	1	3	9	9	2	7
2014	3	0	1	5	5	5	4	9
Percentages	8.75	4.38	1.88	10.63	20	28.13	6.88	19.38

Over the last five NFL drafts, defensive linemen (a combination of defensive tackles and defensive ends) have been selected in the first round at the highest percentage. Based on the numbers, NFL teams seem to prioritize drafting these positions in the following order: defensive linemen, offensive linemen, defensive backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, then tight ends.

Based on percentages, it’s possible that the first round of the 2015 NFL draft could consist of the following:

QB	RB	TE	WR	OL	DL	LB	CB
3	1	1	3	7	9	2	6

Imagine there’s a run on defensive linemen, offensive linemen and cornerbacks. With our Dallas Cowboys having the 27^th pick, there’s a chance that running back Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley could be available.

Look at the ESPN rankings of the top 32 college players. The positions break down to:

QB	RB	TE	WR	OL	DL	LB	CB
2	2	0	6	6	7	4	5

Will the 4^th or 5^th ranked cornerback improve the team more than the 2^nd or 3^rd ranked running back? Should they select the 6^th or 7^th ranked defensive lineman instead of the 3^rd ranked quarterback? The Cowboys don’t need the 3^rd ranked quarterback but choosing between the 5^th ranked cornerback and the 6^th ranked defensive lineman requires some decision making.

This draft has a large selection of running backs, so the Cowboys need to prioritize. Can Cowboy Nation agree that they don’t need an offensive player or linebackers? Thanks to the recent contract signing of linebacker Rolando McClain those positions are secured.

The NFL draft is a perfect example of need meeting supply and demand. The obvious positions of need for the Cowboys are defensive lineman and cornerback. Between the two, cornerback is the “sexy” pick and there are only five of them in the top 32. It would be hard to complain if the Cowboys found an upgrade over defensive tackles Nick Hayden and Josh Brent.

It would most likely be a defensive end that can move inside and play defensive tackle like Tyrone Crawford was asked to do. Based on their need, statistics and my “logic”, I’m confident that they won’t select a running back in the first round even if Gordon or Gurley is available.

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