Arizona To Test Dallas Cowboys Commitment To The Run

TV experts figure the Arizona Cardinals should test the Dallas Cowboys commitment to the run this week. The Cardinals boast the stingiest run defense in the league, as measured by yards per rush attempt, and the Cowboys could be missing two starters along the offensive line in right tackle Doug Free (foot) and left guard Ronald Leary (groin).

The Seattle Seahawks were also supposed to test these Dallas Cowboys commitment to the run back in Week 6. The ‘Hawks boasted a Top 5 run defense. They were playing in a glorified amphitheater designed to destroy opposing offensive communication and game planning. And the Cowboys very nonchalantly drubbed the defending champs for 162 yards on 37 carries.

For these Cardinals, defending the run is key to the franchise culture and identity. Arizona led the league in rushing defense in 2013. This year they have yet to yield 100 rushing yards in a game. They have not allowed an opposing back to rush for 100 yards in a game since San Francisco’s Frank Gore did it over a year ago on October 13, 2013.

Here are how the two teams compare, strength on strength, rushing offense on rushing defense:

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How deep does their dominance go? We can have some idea based on who they’ve played. Check out the rush offenses that Arizona has played so far this season. Here are their yards per game, yards per rush attempt, and NFL ranking based on the latter. All data from espn.go.com:

[table id=76 /]

Based on this data, the Cardinals have not played a single Top-10 rushing offense this year. It’s clear that Arizona has earned its elite ranking by beating up on bottom feeders. The Cardinals have yet to face a legitimately elite rushing attack. Let’s take a peek at what one of those looks like. Here are the rush defenses the Cowboys ran through in building their top-ranked rush offense:

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Interesting that Arizona is tied for the league lead in holding opposing teams to just 3.3 yards per rush attempt, but Arizona hasn’t played anyone like Dallas. Seattle’s 3.3 YPA is much more impressive, considering it includes the 162 yards and 4.4 YPA ripped off by the Cowboys in their home stadium. Let’s look at all the Cowboys opponents, how many rush yards per game they give up on average, and how many rush yards they gave up to the Cowboys:

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On average, teams who face the Cowboys tend to give up about 50 percent more rushing yards than they normally do. Arizona is averaging about 78 yards a game, which means they’d project to give up around 115 yards to Dallas – that would be the Cowboys lowest rushing total of the year.

Seattle was supposed to stop this train in its tracks, and Dallas ran right over the defending champions. Then New York was supposed to offer up a Giant dose of reality, only to get bulldozed for 156 yards and 4.5 per carry. Then Washington and its Top-10 rush defense was supposed to match the Cowboys physicality; 171 yards and 6.8 per carry later those prognostications seem silly.

It doesn’t really matter what Arizona thinks it does well, or what they believe their identity is. If these Cowboys want to run the ball, they’re going to run the ball.

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